Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Discussion on stable credit conditions in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and challenges in North Africa and Levant. Geopolitical risks, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, are a major concern. Analysis of credit conditions in Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon, highlighting financing gaps and market access challenges. Exploration of funding conditions and economic performance in the MENA region, with a focus on the Gulf Cooperation Council. Factors influencing core productivity, including M&A transactions and renewable energy investments, and geopolitical risks in Gaza and the Red Sea.

Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Rebecca Karnovitz, a VP in ESG Research & Outreach at Moody's Investors Service, and Matt Kuchtyak, a VP in Sustainable Finance at the same firm, discuss the key takeaways from COP28. They highlight the critical carbon transition risks facing emerging markets, emphasizing their vulnerability due to reliance on climate-sensitive sectors. The pair delve into the urgent need for climate finance, estimating a requirement of $1 trillion annually by 2030. They also explore innovative solutions for funding and the impressive growth in sustainable bond issuance in response to climate initiatives.

EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated research:Federal Reserve on hold for longer implies slower pivot to policy easing for some EMs

This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

In this podcast, Moody's analysts discuss the reasons behind disinflation in emerging markets, Mexico's increasing industrial production, and the impact of Gabon's political crisis on its outlook. They also explore the potential consequences of the coup in Gabon, including its effect on international financial support and the possibility of economic sanctions. Additionally, they touch on Gabon's rating outlook and the Federal Reserve's policy focus.

Analysts discuss China's property-sector stress and its potential effects for developers, banks, local authorities, and the economy. Topics include challenges faced by the property sector, tightened control over developers' cash, credit stress, recent supportive policies, and government measures to boost property demand.

Thorsten Nestmann, a Senior Vice President and Group Credit Officer, and Christopher Bredholt, a Vice President focusing on public projects, delve into the rise of debt-for-nature swaps among emerging market sovereigns. They discuss how these swaps help reduce debt burdens while fostering climate initiatives. Insights into their credit implications reveal opportunities for enhanced ratings and sustainable development. The conversation highlights real-world examples from nations like Gabon and Ecuador, spotlighting both the risks and transformative potential of these innovative financial strategies.