Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continueEmerging Markets – Global: Local currency bond markets are growing fast, a credit-positive trend for debt issuersSovereigns – Emerging Markets: Favorable financing conditions will not solve structural credit challengesGovernment-Related Issuers – Emerging Markets: GRIs’ standalone credit strength and government support vary widely across EMsBanks – Emerging Markets: Asset-quality risk is receding but remains high in several countriesTo learn more, visit the Emerging Markets topic page.

Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.Guest: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, CoeliHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Gradual recovery in emerging market credit conditions will continue (infographic)

The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Corporates – Emerging Markets: EM corporate default rate will fall further in 2024 and approach advanced economy rateDefault Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average

Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Tail risks from Israel-Iran conflict pose a major threat to sovereigns regionally and globallyIslamic finance sector will retain strong momentum in 2024Sukuk issuance to decline again in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025Strong US dollar sukuk issuance is positive for companies' capital raising effortsIslamic finance's adoption of blockchain could be beneficial, but faces crucial barriers

Vittoria Zoli, an emerging markets analyst, offers keen insights into shifting economic conditions. She discusses how GDP growth is expected to stabilize by 2025, with varying forecasts across regions. Zoli highlights the influence of U.S. Federal Reserve decisions on emerging market currencies and policymakers' credibility. The conversation also delves into the troubling inflation trends in Latin America, analyzing how local and systemic factors are impacting economic stability. It's a compelling look at the global economic landscape!

Gong Cheng, Managing Director of Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings, shares insights on China's economic shift from traditional sectors to emerging industries like tech and electric vehicles. He discusses the challenges ahead, including the need for skilled workforce training and coherent policies. Cheng highlights how countries like Indonesia and Mexico stand to gain from China's new growth model, while also addressing the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations and their effects on global supply chains.

China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings

Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.  Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service