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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded
EM macro conditions are improving unevenly as GDP growth stabilizes and inflation slows
Apr 15, 2024
Vittoria Zoli, an emerging markets analyst, offers keen insights into shifting economic conditions. She discusses how GDP growth is expected to stabilize by 2025, with varying forecasts across regions. Zoli highlights the influence of U.S. Federal Reserve decisions on emerging market currencies and policymakers' credibility. The conversation also delves into the troubling inflation trends in Latin America, analyzing how local and systemic factors are impacting economic stability. It's a compelling look at the global economic landscape!
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Quick takeaways
- Emerging markets will experience a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, with favorable adjustments mainly for Asia and Central-Eastern Europe.
- Inflation trends show a temporary spike due to global influences and local issues, yet a normalization is expected overall despite extreme cases like Argentina.
Deep dives
Emerging Markets Growth Outlook
The macroeconomic outlook for emerging markets indicates a cautious yet positive stabilization in GDP growth, with varying regional outcomes. While overall growth is expected to slow slightly in 2024, forecasts for Asia Pacific have been modestly revised upwards due to stronger indicators in countries reliant on domestic demand, such as India and the Philippines. In contrast, Latin America has seen a downward adjustment in growth projections, notably for countries like Brazil and Colombia, as high-interest rates continue to impact economic activities. This divergence highlights the importance of region-specific factors, such as trade dynamics and domestic consumption, in shaping growth trajectories across emerging markets.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode