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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded
China’s push to shift economic growth engines faces hurdles but will benefit some EMs
Apr 1, 2024
Gong Cheng, Managing Director of Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings, shares insights on China's economic shift from traditional sectors to emerging industries like tech and electric vehicles. He discusses the challenges ahead, including the need for skilled workforce training and coherent policies. Cheng highlights how countries like Indonesia and Mexico stand to gain from China's new growth model, while also addressing the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations and their effects on global supply chains.
15:35
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Quick takeaways
- China's focus on developing new growth drivers like electric vehicles and clean energy underscores the need for effective industrial policy design to avoid market disruptions.
- Emerging markets, particularly Indonesia, stand to gain from China's economic shift as it fosters foreign investment opportunities despite geopolitical tensions influencing global supply chains.
Deep dives
China's Economic Growth Strategy
China's 2024 economic growth plan emphasizes the development of new growth drivers, particularly focusing on electric vehicles, clean energy, and high-tech manufacturing. This approach aims to strengthen sectors that contribute significantly to public goods and positive externalities while requiring substantial upfront investments. Notable examples include the success of state-led investment in high-speed railways and 5G telecommunications, which have shown the effectiveness of industrial policy when designed correctly. However, the podcast also highlights the potential risks associated with poorly structured industrial policies that could disrupt markets and lead to resource misallocation.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode