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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded
Disinflation continues in EMs; Mexico’s industrial production rises; Gabon’s outlook turns negative
Sep 18, 2023
In this podcast, Moody's analysts discuss the reasons behind disinflation in emerging markets, Mexico's increasing industrial production, and the impact of Gabon's political crisis on its outlook. They also explore the potential consequences of the coup in Gabon, including its effect on international financial support and the possibility of economic sanctions. Additionally, they touch on Gabon's rating outlook and the Federal Reserve's policy focus.
20:07
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Quick takeaways
- Disinflation is continuing in most emerging markets due to specific country factors like higher medicine costs and phasing out of subsidies.
- Gabon's rating outlook turned negative due to military intervention, increasing political and government liquidity risks.
Deep dives
US CPI Data and Fed's Decision
The podcast discusses the recent US CPI data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's decision. The CPI rose 0.6% in August, with core inflation excluding food and energy rising 0.3%. While these numbers were slightly higher than expectations, they are unlikely to change the Fed's course. The main question is whether the Fed will hold rates or not, and most economists expect them to hold. However, there is still some risk of inflation, especially in energy-related components, which may impact future rate hikes.
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