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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded
Middle East, North Africa credit conditions are stable in 2024 despite elevated geopolitical risks
Jan 22, 2024
Discussion on stable credit conditions in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and challenges in North Africa and Levant. Geopolitical risks, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, are a major concern. Analysis of credit conditions in Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon, highlighting financing gaps and market access challenges. Exploration of funding conditions and economic performance in the MENA region, with a focus on the Gulf Cooperation Council. Factors influencing core productivity, including M&A transactions and renewable energy investments, and geopolitical risks in Gaza and the Red Sea.
16:32
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Quick takeaways
- The MENA region has a stable outlook for 2024 due to regional growth dynamics, supportive oil and gas prices, and economic linkages between hydrocarbon exporting and non-exporting economies, but geopolitical tensions pose a key risk.
- Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon are exceptions to the stable outlook in the MENA region, facing challenges such as political gridlock, limited market access, weakened global demand, and widening external funding gaps.
Deep dives
Stable outlook for MENA sovereigns supported by regional growth dynamics
The MENA sovereigns have a stable outlook for 2024 due to regional growth dynamics, including investments in various economies and solid business and consumer sentiment. The stability is partly attributed to supportive oil and gas prices and economic linkages between hydrocarbon exporting and non-exporting economies. However, geopolitical tensions in the region pose a key risk, especially if conflicts escalate into a multi-front military conflict. Catalysts for a more positive outlook include eased financing conditions and increased capital inflow, while negative outlooks may be triggered by significant conflicts or weakened global demand.
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