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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Stress in China’s property sector has potential knock-on effects across multiple sectors

Sep 8, 2023
Analysts discuss China's property-sector stress and its potential effects for developers, banks, local authorities, and the economy. Topics include challenges faced by the property sector, tightened control over developers' cash, credit stress, recent supportive policies, and government measures to boost property demand.
19:07

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Quick takeaways

  • The stress in China's property sector has the potential to have wide-ranging effects on developers, banks, local authorities, and the overall economy.
  • The challenges faced by Country Garden, one of China's largest real estate developers, could impact the recovery of the property sector, weaken investor confidence, and strain funding assets for weaker developers and financial institutions.

Deep dives

The Ongoing Stress in China's Property Sector

China's property sector is facing ongoing stress and worsening conditions. Prices and sales volumes are weak, particularly for large developer Country Garden, which has a significant amount of debt. The real estate sector plays a crucial role in China's economy, and a crisis in the sector would have widespread impacts on developers, banks, finance, local authorities, and the real economy as a whole. The Chinese government has implemented measures to control the property market, including restrictions on home purchases, mortgage finance, and funding assets for developers. These measures have led to tightening funding and defaults for highly geared developers like Evergrande. Concerns over developers' credit profiles and liquidity have raised issues for the sector. The prolonged market downturn, reduced homebuyer confidence, and negative economic prospects have contributed to the crisis.

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