Stress in China’s property sector has potential knock-on effects across multiple sectors
Sep 8, 2023
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Analysts discuss China's property-sector stress and its potential effects for developers, banks, local authorities, and the economy. Topics include challenges faced by the property sector, tightened control over developers' cash, credit stress, recent supportive policies, and government measures to boost property demand.
The stress in China's property sector has the potential to have wide-ranging effects on developers, banks, local authorities, and the overall economy.
The challenges faced by Country Garden, one of China's largest real estate developers, could impact the recovery of the property sector, weaken investor confidence, and strain funding assets for weaker developers and financial institutions.
Deep dives
The Ongoing Stress in China's Property Sector
China's property sector is facing ongoing stress and worsening conditions. Prices and sales volumes are weak, particularly for large developer Country Garden, which has a significant amount of debt. The real estate sector plays a crucial role in China's economy, and a crisis in the sector would have widespread impacts on developers, banks, finance, local authorities, and the real economy as a whole. The Chinese government has implemented measures to control the property market, including restrictions on home purchases, mortgage finance, and funding assets for developers. These measures have led to tightening funding and defaults for highly geared developers like Evergrande. Concerns over developers' credit profiles and liquidity have raised issues for the sector. The prolonged market downturn, reduced homebuyer confidence, and negative economic prospects have contributed to the crisis.
Country Garden's Credit Profile Deterioration
Country Garden, one of China's largest real estate developers, is currently facing challenges in liquidity and position. The company has a high level of debt and has been rated negatively by Moody's. Country Garden's financial stress could spill over to other developers, impacting the recovery of China's property sector and raising concerns over the financial health of other privately-owned and smaller developers. The company's credit issues reflect the difficult operating conditions in China's lower-tier cities, and the decreasing national sales indicate a lengthy recovery for the overall sector. If Country Garden fails to make payments on its bonds, it could have direct impacts on its funding and assets, increase regulatory control over cash resources, and lead to debt restructuring. The situation could weaken investor confidence, strain funding assets for weaker developers, and further reduce financial institutions' risk appetite for the property sector.
Payment Default Risk and Impacts
Country Garden's bond payments have been under scrutiny, and while an extension and coupon payment have been made, there are concerns about upcoming bond maturities. The company's failure to make payments could have various impacts. Directly, there may not be significant consequences on the company's assets and funding, as the market is already expecting a default. Regulators may increase control over cash resources to ensure project completion and protect homebuyers' interests, further limiting the company's financial flexibility. A default could lead to debt restructuring and affect financial institutions' exposure. While larger banks may have limited exposure, smaller financial institutions with higher concentration face significant risk. Weaker developers would also face refinancing uncertainties, relying on internal resources or high execution uncertainties of asset disposal. These developments could strain developers' liquidity, leading to increased risk aversion from banks and investors.
In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
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