COP28 climate summit highlights carbon transition risks for emerging markets
Nov 27, 2023
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Rebecca Karnovitz, a VP in ESG Research & Outreach at Moody's Investors Service, and Matt Kuchtyak, a VP in Sustainable Finance at the same firm, discuss the key takeaways from COP28. They highlight the critical carbon transition risks facing emerging markets, emphasizing their vulnerability due to reliance on climate-sensitive sectors. The pair delve into the urgent need for climate finance, estimating a requirement of $1 trillion annually by 2030. They also explore innovative solutions for funding and the impressive growth in sustainable bond issuance in response to climate initiatives.
COP28 highlights the urgent need for emerging markets to secure approximately $1 trillion annually by 2030 for climate mitigation and adaptation.
The vulnerability of emerging markets to climate change contrasts sharply with advanced economies, exposing them to significant physical and transition risks.
Deep dives
Significance of COP28 for Credit Markets
The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP28, holds significant implications for credit markets, particularly due to its timing as a midway point of the Paris Agreement. The conference is attended by countries globally, where they negotiate climate action, with decisions potentially impacting climate-related credit for rated issuers. Key sectors such as oil and gas, and electric utilities are identified as having substantial exposure to carbon transition risks, representing nearly $5 trillion in rated debt. Additionally, over $6 trillion in rated debt across multiple sectors is vulnerable to physical climate risks, highlighting the urgent need for governments to implement effective policies following their commitments.
Unique Challenges for Emerging Markets
Emerging markets face heightened vulnerability to climate change impacts, primarily due to their economic structures that rely heavily on agriculture and tourism. Over 40% of rated emerging market sovereigns have a high credit exposure to physical climate risks, starkly contrasting with less than 1% for advanced economies. These countries often lack the financial resources and safety nets necessary to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather, making adaptation increasingly critical for their credit standing. Effective outcomes from COP28 could facilitate greater resilience and adaptation in emerging markets, significantly influencing their socioeconomic stability and financial health.
The Role of Climate Finance and Private Sector Initiatives
A major focus at COP28 will be the necessity to mobilize climate financing, with estimates suggesting that emerging markets require around $1 trillion annually by 2030 for both mitigation and adaptation. Historical underinvestment has created substantial financing gaps, and emerging markets often encounter barriers such as higher debt levels and interest rates. Initiatives like blended finance and debt-for-nature swaps are emerging as innovative solutions to capitalize on private funding for climate projects, as seen with the Seychelles' blue bond for marine initiatives. Moreover, the increasing activity in sustainable bond issuance, particularly in the Middle East, suggests a growing recognition of the importance of financing climate transition efforts in emerging markets.
Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.
Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service
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