The Foreign Affairs Interview

Emma Ashford, a foreign policy analyst and author, champions a restrained U.S. foreign policy as she explores the shift to a multipolar world. She critiques the Biden and Trump administrations' strategies, advocating for a nuanced understanding of international power dynamics. Ashford discusses the political risks surrounding U.S. withdrawal from conflicts, the complexities of supporting Ukraine, and the importance of promoting pragmatic engagement with adversaries. She emphasizes the need for realistic defense strategies and highlights upcoming geopolitical challenges.

Ben Buchanan, a technology and national-security scholar who advised the White House on AI, shares insights on the shifting landscape of artificial intelligence amidst U.S.-China competition. He warns that America’s AI dominance is at risk without better coordination between the government and tech sectors. Buchanan discusses the importance of energy for large-scale AI, the implications of government policies on chip exports, and argues for a grand bargain to strengthen American AI while addressing national security concerns.

In this engaging discussion, S. C. M. Paine, a strategy expert from the U.S. Naval War College, delves into the age-old contest between maritime and continental powers. She explains how the U.S. has historically thrived as a maritime force but warns of a concerning shift in strategy. Paine contrasts the territorial focus of Russia and China with maritime trade's advantages, highlighting the risks of tariffs and protectionism. She underscores the importance of maintaining a rules-based maritime order and reflects on historical warnings to avert future conflicts.

Robert O'Brien, former U.S. national security advisor, shares insights into Trump's foreign policy trajectory. He discusses the evolving stance on China, emphasizing a pragmatic approach with a focus on supply chains and a temporary pause in confrontation. O'Brien covers strategies in Venezuela to combat drug trafficking, Trump's proposed settlement for the Ukraine conflict, and the complex dynamics with India. He also examines how Trump's governance style has matured, advocating for national sovereignty and nonintervention while stressing the need for economic pressure on adversaries.

Orville Schell, a veteran China scholar and author, shares insights on Xi Jinping's worldview and the complexities of U.S.-China relations. He discusses the recent Trump-Xi meeting, highlighting that while it provided a temporary pause in tensions, it didn't address deeper issues. Schell sheds light on Xi's insecurities and ideological roots, the significance of Taiwan, and how China's strategic moves could reshape global dynamics. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding China's historical context and the risks of military conflict, urging diplomacy for a stable future.

Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, former justice on the California Supreme Court and president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delves into the expansive use of presidential power during Trump's second term. He discusses how recent lethal strikes raise constitutional questions and the risks of escalating military action. Cuéllar emphasizes the importance of courts, federalism, and independent media as checks on power. He warns against state partisanship, highlights the dangers facing the U.S. innovation ecosystem, and advocates for AI governance that balances safety and innovation.

Rob Malley, a seasoned U.S. Middle East policy expert and commentator, joins the discussion to critique American diplomacy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He argues the two-state solution is outdated and questions its actual support among Israelis and Palestinians. Malley reflects on past negotiations, critiques the Biden administration's Israel embrace, and discusses the fragile ceasefire in Gaza. He also explores realistic governance options for Gaza and the shifting dynamics in regional diplomacy, including potential normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Shira Efron, a distinguished chair for Israel Policy at RAND, Khaled Elgindy, a Georgetown University scholar and former Palestinian negotiator, and Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, engage in a riveting discussion about the cease-fire in Gaza. They explore the nuances of Trump’s influence on the cease-fire and the complexities surrounding Hamas' disarmament. The guests analyze regional pressures, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations, and the ramifications of widespread destruction, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomacy in addressing ongoing traumas.

Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delves into Russia's evolving military strategy amidst the Ukraine conflict. She highlights how Russia has adapted its tactics, learning from initial failures to improve operational effectiveness. Massicot warns that the Russian military's resilience and experience could pose future threats as they share insights with allies like China and Iran. She also discusses the implications of U.S. policy on supply stability and warns of intensified strikes on Ukraine as winter approaches.

Political scientists Daniel Mattingly and Tyler Jost delve into the precarious future of China following Xi Jinping's rule. They discuss why succession poses a significant threat to authoritarian regimes, emphasizing Xi's tight grip complicating potential leadership transitions. The conversation touches on the risks surrounding Taiwan in light of succession dynamics, historical parallels with past military actions, and the lack of clear heirs. They also caution against U.S. intervention, stressing the complexities of China’s internal power struggles.