The Foreign Affairs Interview

Political scientists Daniel Mattingly and Tyler Jost delve into the precarious future of China following Xi Jinping's rule. They discuss why succession poses a significant threat to authoritarian regimes, emphasizing Xi's tight grip complicating potential leadership transitions. The conversation touches on the risks surrounding Taiwan in light of succession dynamics, historical parallels with past military actions, and the lack of clear heirs. They also caution against U.S. intervention, stressing the complexities of China’s internal power struggles.

Radek Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister and a seasoned commentator on European security, discusses the recent drone incursions by Russia as a test of NATO's resilience. He emphasizes Poland's defense spending increases, critiques Europe's past trade concessions under US pressure, and assesses the implications of Trump's remarks on Polish security. Sikorski argues for effective humanitarian migration policies and reflects on how the ongoing war in Ukraine shapes global perceptions, while also addressing the role of China in bolstering Russia.

In this discussion, Anne Neuberger, former cybersecurity leader at the NSA/DoD and the U.S. National Security Council, shares insights on China's troubling Salt Typhoon operation, which compromised significant U.S. telecommunications infrastructure. She emphasizes the urgent need for America to improve cyber defenses as threats grow alongside AI advancements. Neuberger highlights the risks posed by Chinese surveillance and discusses the complexities of U.S. vulnerabilities, offensive strategies, and the importance of international cooperation in cybersecurity.

Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative and current President of the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the profound changes to the global economy due to recent tariffs. He argues that the traditional trade order is irreparably damaged and warns of potential economic anarchy. Froman emphasizes the necessity of implementing new rules in global trade, even in the absence of a unified system. He also highlights the interplay between economic policies and national security, pointing to the evolving landscape of international trade agreements.

Ami Ayalon, a former commander of the Israeli Navy and head of Shin Bet, shares his insights on the path to peace between Israelis and Palestinians. He argues that Israel's long-term security hinges on acknowledging Palestinian rights and establishing a Palestinian state. Ayalon discusses the strategic errors leading to the current conflict and the urgent need for a clear post-war vision. He emphasizes the importance of international collaboration for a viable two-state solution and the necessity for Israeli leadership to navigate the ideological battles within society.

Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, political scientists and co-authors of 'The Rise of the Economic Security State,' dissect the shift from U.S. dominance in global financial networks to the emergence of rivals like China wielding their own economic leverage. They explore the implications of 'weaponized interdependence,' how this transformation blurs lines between national security and economic power, and the evolving dynamics of sanctions and technology. Their insights reveal a critical turning point in geopolitics and the need for new strategies to navigate these challenges.

Margaret MacMillan, a renowned historian and professor emeritus at Oxford University, dives into the shifting landscape of U.S. foreign alliances under the Trump administration. She discusses how Trump's approach undermines traditional diplomacy, posing risks similar to historical appeasement before World War II. MacMillan warns against normalizing territorial conquests like those seen in Ukraine, reflecting on the repercussions for global relations. The conversation also explores NATO dynamics and how historical narratives influence modern political identities.

Nicholas Eberstadt, a leading political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, delves into the world’s stunning decline in fertility rates. He highlights that we may be entering an era of depopulation, with the U.S. hitting its lowest birthrate ever in 2024. Eberstadt discusses how this demographic shift will reshape societal structures and global geopolitics. He also emphasizes the potential of migration to address workforce shortages and the role of AI and automation in navigating these profound changes.

In a riveting discussion, Stephen Kotkin, a leading Russia expert at Stanford, and Orville Schell, a prominent China scholar, delve into the motivations behind Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s leadership. They explore how both leaders draw from their tumultuous pasts, shaping their autocratic styles. The conversation highlights the impact of historical narratives on modern geopolitics, especially in the context of the Ukraine war and Sino-Russian relations. Their insights expose the complex interplay of power, ideology, and the ambitions driving these formidable figures on the world stage.

Ashley J. Tellis, a scholar and former U.S. official, makes a case for India's closer alignment with the U.S. to counter China, stirring debate. Dhruva Jaishankar counters that the U.S. isn't offering India a true alliance, pushing for a multipolar order instead. Nirupama Rao emphasizes India's need for strategic autonomy amidst complex international dynamics. The trio dives deep into the challenges of U.S.-India relations, the implications of India's political shift, and the need for effective collaboration to tackle regional threats.