The Foreign Affairs Interview

Xi Jinping's Successor and the Future of China

11 snips
Oct 2, 2025
Political scientists Daniel Mattingly and Tyler Jost delve into the precarious future of China following Xi Jinping's rule. They discuss why succession poses a significant threat to authoritarian regimes, emphasizing Xi's tight grip complicating potential leadership transitions. The conversation touches on the risks surrounding Taiwan in light of succession dynamics, historical parallels with past military actions, and the lack of clear heirs. They also caution against U.S. intervention, stressing the complexities of China’s internal power struggles.
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INSIGHT

Succession Is China's Structural Weak Point

  • Succession is the Achilles' heel of authoritarian regimes and has repeatedly troubled PRC leaders.
  • Past Chinese successions (Mao, Deng) show elite fights and unstable transfers of power.
INSIGHT

Centralization Raises Succession Stakes

  • Xi's consolidation of power raises stakes and narrows options for a stable handoff.
  • Centralized control lets Xi shape succession but also makes elite pushback more dangerous.
ANECDOTE

Who Could Follow Xi?

  • Potential successors include Premier Li Qiang and Shanghai party secretary Chen Jining, but both have drawbacks.
  • Neither Li nor Cai Jianguo are clearly young enough or positioned to follow Xi in the usual timeline.
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