The Foreign Affairs Interview

Robert O'Brien, former U.S. national security advisor, shares insights into Trump's foreign policy trajectory. He discusses the evolving stance on China, emphasizing a pragmatic approach with a focus on supply chains and a temporary pause in confrontation. O'Brien covers strategies in Venezuela to combat drug trafficking, Trump's proposed settlement for the Ukraine conflict, and the complex dynamics with India. He also examines how Trump's governance style has matured, advocating for national sovereignty and nonintervention while stressing the need for economic pressure on adversaries.

Orville Schell, a veteran China scholar and author, shares insights on Xi Jinping's worldview and the complexities of U.S.-China relations. He discusses the recent Trump-Xi meeting, highlighting that while it provided a temporary pause in tensions, it didn't address deeper issues. Schell sheds light on Xi's insecurities and ideological roots, the significance of Taiwan, and how China's strategic moves could reshape global dynamics. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding China's historical context and the risks of military conflict, urging diplomacy for a stable future.

Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, former justice on the California Supreme Court and president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delves into the expansive use of presidential power during Trump's second term. He discusses how recent lethal strikes raise constitutional questions and the risks of escalating military action. Cuéllar emphasizes the importance of courts, federalism, and independent media as checks on power. He warns against state partisanship, highlights the dangers facing the U.S. innovation ecosystem, and advocates for AI governance that balances safety and innovation.

Rob Malley, a seasoned U.S. Middle East policy expert and commentator, joins the discussion to critique American diplomacy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He argues the two-state solution is outdated and questions its actual support among Israelis and Palestinians. Malley reflects on past negotiations, critiques the Biden administration's Israel embrace, and discusses the fragile ceasefire in Gaza. He also explores realistic governance options for Gaza and the shifting dynamics in regional diplomacy, including potential normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Shira Efron, a distinguished chair for Israel Policy at RAND, Khaled Elgindy, a Georgetown University scholar and former Palestinian negotiator, and Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, engage in a riveting discussion about the cease-fire in Gaza. They explore the nuances of Trump’s influence on the cease-fire and the complexities surrounding Hamas' disarmament. The guests analyze regional pressures, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations, and the ramifications of widespread destruction, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomacy in addressing ongoing traumas.

Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delves into Russia's evolving military strategy amidst the Ukraine conflict. She highlights how Russia has adapted its tactics, learning from initial failures to improve operational effectiveness. Massicot warns that the Russian military's resilience and experience could pose future threats as they share insights with allies like China and Iran. She also discusses the implications of U.S. policy on supply stability and warns of intensified strikes on Ukraine as winter approaches.

Political scientists Daniel Mattingly and Tyler Jost delve into the precarious future of China following Xi Jinping's rule. They discuss why succession poses a significant threat to authoritarian regimes, emphasizing Xi's tight grip complicating potential leadership transitions. The conversation touches on the risks surrounding Taiwan in light of succession dynamics, historical parallels with past military actions, and the lack of clear heirs. They also caution against U.S. intervention, stressing the complexities of China’s internal power struggles.

Radek Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister and a seasoned commentator on European security, discusses the recent drone incursions by Russia as a test of NATO's resilience. He emphasizes Poland's defense spending increases, critiques Europe's past trade concessions under US pressure, and assesses the implications of Trump's remarks on Polish security. Sikorski argues for effective humanitarian migration policies and reflects on how the ongoing war in Ukraine shapes global perceptions, while also addressing the role of China in bolstering Russia.

In this discussion, Anne Neuberger, former cybersecurity leader at the NSA/DoD and the U.S. National Security Council, shares insights on China's troubling Salt Typhoon operation, which compromised significant U.S. telecommunications infrastructure. She emphasizes the urgent need for America to improve cyber defenses as threats grow alongside AI advancements. Neuberger highlights the risks posed by Chinese surveillance and discusses the complexities of U.S. vulnerabilities, offensive strategies, and the importance of international cooperation in cybersecurity.

Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative and current President of the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the profound changes to the global economy due to recent tariffs. He argues that the traditional trade order is irreparably damaged and warns of potential economic anarchy. Froman emphasizes the necessity of implementing new rules in global trade, even in the absence of a unified system. He also highlights the interplay between economic policies and national security, pointing to the evolving landscape of international trade agreements.