Macro Voices

In this discussion, Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and an expert in the oil market, breaks down the complexities of crude oil dynamics. He highlights how Trump's sanctions have kept prices elevated by constraining supply, particularly concerning Venezuelan resources. Rory analyzes the geopolitical implications of U.S. resource strategies, including the challenges of restoring Venezuelan oil production. He also navigates the recent movements in oil prices, assessing whether they stem from real market changes or are fueled by geopolitical narratives.

Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro and a macro strategist, reveals intriguing predictions for 2026, suggesting it will ultimately be a prosperous year despite potential turbulence in the early months. He highlights historic bullish positioning risks and compares the current AI capital expenditure boom to the dot-com bubble. Darius discusses the likelihood of macroeconomic headwinds, potential fiscal expansions, and the implications of shifts in monetary policy. His systematic KISS model provides actionable investment advice amidst this complex landscape.

Mark Williams, an immigration attorney, Graham Lawrence, a tax expert, and Brendan Goodwin, a luxury real estate agent, discuss the surge of wealthy individuals moving to New Zealand. They explore the benefits of the Active Investor Plus visa, including family inclusion and property purchasing opportunities. Tax implications for non-residents and the four-year transitional tax exemption are highlighted. The guests also dive into New Zealand's appealing lifestyle, property market constraints, and the advantages of receiving concierge relocation services for high-net-worth clients.

David Rosenberg, an influential economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, dives deep into the U.S. economic outlook. He discusses the implications of Fed policy and the potential impact of a cooling labor market on inflation in 2026. Rosenberg highlights the rising importance of AI capital expenditures, as a divide in spending emerges between tech and traditional sectors. He also warns about the fragility of the stock market's role in supporting the economy, while advocating for defensive investment strategies like gold and Treasuries.

Join Robert Kahn, a geopolitical analyst from Eurasia Group, as he explores the complex landscape shaping our world. Kahn discusses the future of tariffs and their political implications leading to 2026. He emphasizes the shift from tariffs to direct industrial policy under the current administration, and highlights affordability as a crucial issue for the midterms. Delve into the geopolitical risks involving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China relations, along with the potential outcomes of the upcoming Fed chair selection. Kahn’s insights expose the intricate ties between geopolitics and market volatility.

Jim Bianco, Founder of Bianco Research and a leading macroeconomic analyst, joins to dissect recent Fed actions, including a surprising 25 basis point cut. He warns about the implications of a bloated Treasury market and the potential resurgence of bond vigilantes. Discussing inflation, he highlights how aggressive rate cuts might spark public anger and unanchor inflation expectations. Bianco also explores Gen Z's shift toward socialism, driven by affordability concerns and job disruptions from AI, and advocates for increasing housing supply to tackle affordability issues.

Marko Papic, a geo-macro strategist from BCA Research, dives deep into the geopolitical landscape affecting markets. He analyzes the implications of Trump's Venezuela strategy and forecasts a bullish outlook for oil despite the nation's production challenges. Papic discusses the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and its impact on energy prices. He also highlights rising tensions between Japan and China and their implications for regional stability. As election dynamics shape market responses, he predicts that U.S. politics will play a central role in 2026.

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, shares his expertise on cycles and economic indicators. He discusses how cycle indicators hold up during regime changes and interprets recent policy shocks impacting growth and inflation. Achuthan describes a 'Goldilocks' scenario where growth strengthens while inflation remains contained. He compares the current AI bubble to the dot-com era and emphasizes the importance of monitoring wealth inequality and energy constraints. Overall, he highlights forward-looking inflation gauges and the nuanced timing of secular inflation risks.

Michael Howell, CEO of Global Liquidity Indices and macro researcher, delves into the global liquidity cycle's intricate dynamics. He discusses the significance of its 65-month periodicity and where we currently stand. The conversation highlights the implications of recent market sell-offs and the shifting landscape of asset allocation. Howell also addresses the debt-liquidity paradox, how refinancing needs impact market stability, and the potential outcomes of government stimulus in restoring liquidity. His insights paint a thoughtful picture of future trends in commodities and markets.

In a lively discussion, Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, shares insights on market dynamics and volatility. He delves into the impact of passive investing on equities and examines the sustainability of recent market momentum. Green also highlights shifting trends in high-yield bonds and the factors driving the rally in precious metals. Additionally, he tackles geopolitical tensions with China and the implications for U.S.-China relations. With a focus on strategies for yield, he provides actionable advice for navigating today’s market landscape.