Macro Voices

Marko Papic, a geo-macro strategist from BCA Research, dives deep into the geopolitical landscape affecting markets. He analyzes the implications of Trump's Venezuela strategy and forecasts a bullish outlook for oil despite the nation's production challenges. Papic discusses the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and its impact on energy prices. He also highlights rising tensions between Japan and China and their implications for regional stability. As election dynamics shape market responses, he predicts that U.S. politics will play a central role in 2026.

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, shares his expertise on cycles and economic indicators. He discusses how cycle indicators hold up during regime changes and interprets recent policy shocks impacting growth and inflation. Achuthan describes a 'Goldilocks' scenario where growth strengthens while inflation remains contained. He compares the current AI bubble to the dot-com era and emphasizes the importance of monitoring wealth inequality and energy constraints. Overall, he highlights forward-looking inflation gauges and the nuanced timing of secular inflation risks.

Michael Howell, CEO of Global Liquidity Indices and macro researcher, delves into the global liquidity cycle's intricate dynamics. He discusses the significance of its 65-month periodicity and where we currently stand. The conversation highlights the implications of recent market sell-offs and the shifting landscape of asset allocation. Howell also addresses the debt-liquidity paradox, how refinancing needs impact market stability, and the potential outcomes of government stimulus in restoring liquidity. His insights paint a thoughtful picture of future trends in commodities and markets.

In a lively discussion, Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, shares insights on market dynamics and volatility. He delves into the impact of passive investing on equities and examines the sustainability of recent market momentum. Green also highlights shifting trends in high-yield bonds and the factors driving the rally in precious metals. Additionally, he tackles geopolitical tensions with China and the implications for U.S.-China relations. With a focus on strategies for yield, he provides actionable advice for navigating today’s market landscape.

In this insightful discussion, Michael Every, a global strategist at Rabobank, delves into the evolving dynamics of US-China relations and the implications for global markets. He analyzes China's export controls and recent geopolitical tensions, illustrating how these factors influence military and economic strategies. Michael also forecasts the bifurcation of supply chains and highlights the growing importance of dollar stablecoins. With thoughts on investment strategies, he urges listeners to navigate the shifting landscape between Team US and Team China.

Brent Johnson, Founder of Santiago Capital, dives into the transformative potential of stablecoins and their geopolitical significance. He explains the dollar milkshake theory and how stablecoins might prolong the dominance of the US dollar. Brent discusses the implications of the Genius Act on stablecoin regulation and audits, and evaluates if rival nations can create non-dollar alternatives. He also touches on the possible advantages of gold-backed stablecoins, exploring how these dynamics could reshape global monetary systems.

Adam Rozencwajg, a commodities portfolio manager, dives into the intriguing world of gold, oil, and uranium. He explains why recent fluctuations in gold prices are just a pause in a larger bull market, while central banks’ buying is driven by a shift away from dollar assets. Rozencwajg also discusses the complexities of oil’s negative perception and suggests that market narratives are flawed. For uranium, he highlights a tightening market with risks, including geopolitical factors, making it a hot topic for investors.

In this discussion, Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, delves into leading indicators and their implications for growth and inflation. He presents a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, emphasizing resilient growth and a potential reflationary environment. Tian also compares current market conditions to the early 2000s, exploring recession risks and signaling from inventory rebuilding trends. He provides insights on rising inflation pressures and the recovery signs in China and the Eurozone, offering valuable trading strategies along the way.

Matt Barrie, Founder and CEO of Freelancer.com, dives into the current AI landscape, questioning whether we're facing another bubble or a transformative era akin to the Internet boom. He analyzes the staggering $7 trillion CapEx projection for AI infrastructure and discusses critical energy constraints affecting data centers. Barrie also highlights the challenges of monetizing AI products and examines the societal impact, including productivity gains and job displacement. He reflects on how platforms like Freelancer.com are evolving in this rapidly changing environment.

In this insightful discussion, Lyn Alden, a macro strategist and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, dives deep into U.S. fiscal deficits and the looming risks of a reserve-currency crisis. She examines what might trigger a sudden economic shift, like rising confidence, political upheaval, or energy shocks. Lyn also elaborates on generational tensions around entitlements and explains her metaphor of a 'train' to describe persistent fiscal deficits. Her deep analysis highlights the interconnectedness of debt, politics, and societal fractures.