Macro Voices MacroVoices #512 David Rosenberg: Will The 2025’s K become 2026’s
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Dec 24, 2025 
David Rosenberg, an influential economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, dives deep into the U.S. economic outlook. He discusses the implications of Fed policy and the potential impact of a cooling labor market on inflation in 2026. Rosenberg highlights the rising importance of AI capital expenditures, as a divide in spending emerges between tech and traditional sectors. He also warns about the fragility of the stock market's role in supporting the economy, while advocating for defensive investment strategies like gold and Treasuries.
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Fed Should Follow Forecasts Not Lagging Data
- David Rosenberg argues Fed policy should be forecast-dependent, not just data-dependent, to avoid lagged policy mistakes.
- He expects inflation to trend back to target by Q2 2026, forcing the Fed to cut rates more than markets expect.
The K-Shaped Economy Is Holding Everything Up
- The 2025 economy is K-shaped across consumers and capital spending, with AI-driven CapEx booming while the rest declines.
- Rosenberg warns the high-end consumer and AI capex currently hold the cycle together, creating concentration risk for 2026.
Stock Market, Not Wages, Is Funding Consumption
- Real disposable personal income is negative while consumer spending stays elevated, funded by stock-market-driven savings declines.
- That makes the economy highly dependent on continued equity gains to sustain consumption in 2026.