Macro Voices MacroVoices #505 Michael Every: Does Anyone Remember PMIs?
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Nov 6, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, Michael Every, a global strategist at Rabobank, delves into the evolving dynamics of US-China relations and the implications for global markets. He analyzes China's export controls and recent geopolitical tensions, illustrating how these factors influence military and economic strategies. Michael also forecasts the bifurcation of supply chains and highlights the growing importance of dollar stablecoins. With thoughts on investment strategies, he urges listeners to navigate the shifting landscape between Team US and Team China.
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US-China Rivalry Is The Central Driver
- Global tensions are driven primarily by the US trying to reinvent itself with China as the central strategic target.
- Expect prolonged geoeconomic competition rather than a quick reconciliation between the two powers.
Meeting Brought A Ceasefire To Rearm
- The Trump–Xi meeting produced a temporary ceasefire to rearm, not a durable G2 partnership.
- Expect a year-long interregnum with calmer markets while both sides rebuild advantages.
Selective Bifurcation Of Global Trade
- The world will bifurcate selectively: commoditized goods keep trading, strategic sectors split into competing tech and supply-chain blocs.
- Upstream inputs and key industries will see most of the decoupling.