Macro Voices MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
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Dec 4, 2025 
Marko Papic, a geo-macro strategist from BCA Research, dives deep into the geopolitical landscape affecting markets. He analyzes the implications of Trump's Venezuela strategy and forecasts a bullish outlook for oil despite the nation's production challenges. Papic discusses the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and its impact on energy prices. He also highlights rising tensions between Japan and China and their implications for regional stability. As election dynamics shape market responses, he predicts that U.S. politics will play a central role in 2026.
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No-Fly Warning Signals Negotiation, Not Invasion
- President Trump's no-fly zone warning over Venezuela is being taken seriously by airlines and has real market implications.
- Marco Papic expects the message to be a prelude to negotiation, not necessarily immediate ground war.
Venezuela Can't Be Turned On Overnight
- Replacing Maduro won't restore Venezuelan oil output quickly because PDVSA's productive capacity is destroyed.
- Papic sees oil prices as likely bullish for the next 18 months even if political change occurs.
Saudi Fiscal Needs Push Oil Prices Up
- Saudi Arabia may be pressuring the U.S. to accept higher oil prices because Riyadh needs revenue for Vision 2030 projects.
- That shifts the oil outlook more bullish into 2026 as Saudi fiscal needs outweigh U.S. short-term demands.