Macro Voices MacroVoices #507 Michael Howell: Is This The end of the Everything Bubble
171 snips
Nov 20, 2025 
Michael Howell, CEO of Global Liquidity Indices and macro researcher, delves into the global liquidity cycle's intricate dynamics. He discusses the significance of its 65-month periodicity and where we currently stand. The conversation highlights the implications of recent market sell-offs and the shifting landscape of asset allocation. Howell also addresses the debt-liquidity paradox, how refinancing needs impact market stability, and the potential outcomes of government stimulus in restoring liquidity. His insights paint a thoughtful picture of future trends in commodities and markets.
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65-Month Global Liquidity Rhythm
- Global liquidity follows a persistent 65-month cycle tied to average debt maturities.
- The current cycle peaked late 2025 and is beginning to inflect downward, risking an equity headwind.
Liquidity Drives Asset Rotation
- The liquidity cycle maps to an asset allocation cycle where equities peak mid-cycle and commodities follow.
- We are late-cycle now, implying commodity outperformance may follow equity weakness.
Rotate Assets By Cycle Phase
- Adjust allocations by cycle: favor equities earlier, shift to commodities near peak, and to cash/bonds during downturns.
- Use sector timing: tech leads early, financials mid-cycle, commodities late-cycle.
