Macro Voices MacroVoices #511 Robert Kahn: Geopolitical Outlook For 2026
116 snips
Dec 18, 2025 
Join Robert Kahn, a geopolitical analyst from Eurasia Group, as he explores the complex landscape shaping our world. Kahn discusses the future of tariffs and their political implications leading to 2026. He emphasizes the shift from tariffs to direct industrial policy under the current administration, and highlights affordability as a crucial issue for the midterms. Delve into the geopolitical risks involving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China relations, along with the potential outcomes of the upcoming Fed chair selection. Kahn’s insights expose the intricate ties between geopolitics and market volatility.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tariff Shock Will Raise Consumer Prices
- Tariffs are the largest U.S. tariff shock since the 1930s and still create meaningful disruption.
- Firms will increasingly pass tariffs through to consumer prices, so inflation effects are deferred not avoided.
Industrial Policy Replaces Pure Tariff Strategy
- The administration is pivoting from tariffs toward active industrial policy and dealmaking with firms.
- Expect direct government interventions like equity stakes, profit-sharing, and conditional exemptions to shape investment.
Affordability Will Drive Midterms
- Affordability will dominate the midterm political debate and constrain tariff policy.
- That tension increases chances Democrats retake the House and pressures the White House to adjust costs.