FiveThirtyEight Politics

The podcast discusses the controversy surrounding polls and bias in the presidential primary cycle. It focuses on Biden's decline in support among voters of color and analyzes polling data. It also explores the significance of sleep on overall health, the limitations of early polling, and the shifting support of Republicans among voters of color. The chapter highlights the differences in popularity between Biden and Clinton, as well as voter cynicism and the impact of election fraud claims.

As the campaign season begins, the podcast discusses the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the GOP primary. They analyze the ethical implications of leaked internal poll numbers and the use of internal polling data in media criticism. The chapter also explores the sources of uncertainty in the GOP nomination, highlights victories in special election primaries, and delves into the drama and impact of different paths for the Democratic Party.

Pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler discuss the good and bad use of polling. They analyze why GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently based on methodology, the lessons from post-debate polling, and whether Nikki Haley utilized polling effectively in her debate performance.

The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican primary debate, including candidates' performance and dynamics, the absence of Trump, and speculation about the future. They reflect on their post-debate analysis, and discuss the atmosphere outside the Pfizer forum. The hosts also provide closing remarks and encourage listeners to engage with the podcast.

The podcast discusses the upcoming GOP primary and the first debate. They analyze the candidates' visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, explore why some candidates are not maintaining support, and discuss compelling candidates and ad campaigns. The hosts also play a guessing game to identify politicians' quotes on various topics.

Three Georgia Law Professors, legal experts, discuss Trump's fourth indictment in Fulton County, Georgia for his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. They highlight the differences from his previous indictments, including state crimes, a criminal enterprise involving 18 others, and the absence of presidential power to pardon. The significance of televised court proceedings and the impact on public perception are also explored.

Ohioans voted against raising the threshold for amending the constitution, potentially paving the way for codifying abortion rights. The crew discusses the impact of abortion as a driving issue in elections. They also do a draft of potential GOP vice presidential candidates for the 2024 election if Trump is the nominee.

Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and it’s a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from a simple majority to a 60 percent supermajority. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about where the race stands and the broader trend of similar ballot measures.Galen also digs into the New York Times’s first polls of the 2024 primary and general elections with Ruth Igielnik, the Times's editor of news surveys. Their surveys with Siena College during the 2022 midterms earned them the distinction of the best pollster in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight's ratings. At this point, their early data suggests that former President Donald Trump is far outpacing his rivals in the Republican primary and is tied with President Biden in general election polling. So, what should we make of that? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did former President Donald Trump conspire to defraud the United States, conspire to obstruct an official proceeding, actually obstruct that preceding and conspire to willfully deprive American citizens of their right to vote?Those will now be questions for a federal jury after a grand jury indicted the former president on four felony charges on Tuesday.In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what was in the Department of Justice's 45 page charging document, what comes next and how Americans are thinking about it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Galen speaks with Anthony Leiserowitz, founder of Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, about public perceptions of climate change. They discuss extreme weather events, the evolution of American opinion on climate change, and the role of focusing events in driving policy changes. They also explore public attitudes towards climate change mitigation efforts and how to get people to care about climate change. Additionally, the podcast touches on GOP primary polling and voting laws.