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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?

Sep 6, 2023
56:51
Snipd AI
As the campaign season begins, the podcast discusses the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the GOP primary. They analyze the ethical implications of leaked internal poll numbers and the use of internal polling data in media criticism. The chapter also explores the sources of uncertainty in the GOP nomination, highlights victories in special election primaries, and delves into the drama and impact of different paths for the Democratic Party.
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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The Democratic primary in Rhode Island's first congressional district highlighted the divide between moderate and progressive factions within the party.
  • Democrats have outperformed partisan lean by an average of 10 percentage points in special elections this year, indicating a potential indicator of voter sentiment.

Deep dives

Rhode Island's Democratic Primary: Amo wins with Biden's support

In the Democratic primary for Rhode Island's first congressional district, Gabriel Amo emerged as the winner with 33% of the vote. Amo, who worked for the Obama and Biden administrations, ran on a moderate platform and garnered support from Biden allies. He defeated progressive candidate Aaron Reganberg, who had the backing of Bernie Sanders and Our Revolution. The race highlighted the divide between moderate and progressive factions within the Democratic Party.

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