As the campaign season begins, the podcast discusses the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the GOP primary. They analyze the ethical implications of leaked internal poll numbers and the use of internal polling data in media criticism. The chapter also explores the sources of uncertainty in the GOP nomination, highlights victories in special election primaries, and delves into the drama and impact of different paths for the Democratic Party.
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Quick takeaways
The Democratic primary in Rhode Island's first congressional district highlighted the divide between moderate and progressive factions within the party.
Democrats have outperformed partisan lean by an average of 10 percentage points in special elections this year, indicating a potential indicator of voter sentiment.
Deep dives
Rhode Island's Democratic Primary: Amo wins with Biden's support
In the Democratic primary for Rhode Island's first congressional district, Gabriel Amo emerged as the winner with 33% of the vote. Amo, who worked for the Obama and Biden administrations, ran on a moderate platform and garnered support from Biden allies. He defeated progressive candidate Aaron Reganberg, who had the backing of Bernie Sanders and Our Revolution. The race highlighted the divide between moderate and progressive factions within the Democratic Party.
Utah's Republican Primary: Malloy and Edwards in close contest
In Utah's second congressional district, Celeste Malloy and Becky Edwards are locked in a close race for the Republican nomination. Malloy, a pro-Trump Republican, currently leads with 38% of the vote, while Edwards, who voted for Biden in 2020 but regretted her vote, has 36% support. The third candidate, Bruce Huff, garnered 26% of the vote. The district has an urban-rural divide, with Edwards performing well in urban areas and Malloy dominating in rural counties.
Trends in Special Elections: Democrats outperforming expectations
In special elections for state legislative seats, Democrats have outperformed partisan lean by an average of 10 percentage points this year. This trend is similar to the Democratic performance in 2017 and 2018. It remains to be seen if this trend will continue in upcoming general elections. Special elections have historically been predictive of the national popular vote, and they are an important indicator of voter sentiment.
Upcoming Elections to Watch
One upcoming election to watch is a special election in New Hampshire for a Republican-held seat in the State House. Democrats have a good chance of flipping the seat, which could impact the balance of power in the closely divided New Hampshire State House. Additionally, state and local elections in Virginia will have implications for the agenda of Governor Youngkin, while Louisiana's gubernatorial race is notable as a term-limited Democratic governor in a red state.
Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
In this installment of the podcast, we ask a question we will undoubtedly return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s nomination inevitable? And if not inevitable, how can we place the likelihood he wins the GOP primary in historical context?
We also have partial results from two special primary elections and we debate “good or bad use of polling” for a classic and controversial topic: internal polls.