Ohioans voted against raising the threshold for amending the constitution, potentially paving the way for codifying abortion rights. The crew discusses the impact of abortion as a driving issue in elections. They also do a draft of potential GOP vice presidential candidates for the 2024 election if Trump is the nominee.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections, as evidenced by the recent vote in Ohio.
Various potential running mates are discussed for a hypothetical scenario of Trump winning the 2024 presidential nomination.
Kid Rock's unconventional appeal as a VP pick for Trump comes from his fame, strong fan base, and potential to attract young voters.
Deep dives
Ohio abortion vote highlights the importance of abortion as a motivating issue for voters
The recent vote in Ohio, where voters rejected raising the threshold to amend the Constitution to a 60% supermajority, highlights the significance of abortion as a motivating issue for voters. While the vote was technically not about abortion, both sides framed it as such, and the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections. This raises the question of how abortion will impact high turnout elections like the 2024 presidential election and whether the lessons from issue elections can be applied.
2024 Republican VP draft: Potential running mates for Trump
In a hypothetical scenario where Trump wins the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, potential running mates are discussed. The top contenders include Senator Tim Scott, who has a strong national profile and appeals to a broad range of Republicans; Nikki Haley, who brings diversity and appeals to women and college-educated voters; and Joni Ernst, who is a veteran, represents the midwest, and can balance the ticket. Other potential picks include Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Frances Suarez, and Nancy Mace.
The unconventional pick: Kid Rock as a VP candidate for Trump
Amidst a discussion of potential running mates, Kid Rock, the musician, is presented as an unconventional pick for Trump's VP. Although this pick may be seen as a joke, Kid Rock's appeal comes from being a well-known figure with a strong fan base. Being from Michigan, he could potentially help Trump win the state and attract young voters nostalgic for the 90s. While not a traditional political figure, Kid Rock's fame and ability to capture attention may make him an appealing and unconventional choice.
Moderate voices and regional significance: Governors Kim Reynolds and Brian Kemp
Governors Kim Reynolds of Iowa and Brian Kemp of Georgia are discussed as potential VP picks for Trump. Both governors have their own unique qualities that could attract Trump's attention. Reynolds represents the Midwest and appeals to a broad range of Republicans, while Kemp has had a tumultuous relationship with Trump but brings the experience of being Georgia's governor. These potential picks offer regional significance and a moderate voice that could balance the ticket.
A diverse and fresh face: The case for Katie Britt
Katie Britt, the first Republican woman elected to the Senate from Alabama, is presented as a potential VP pick. With a background that includes working for the Business Council of Alabama and serving as the Chief of Staff for Richard Shelby, she brings a strong establishment presence and connections. As a younger Republican woman, Britt could attract voters and provide a fresh face for the party. Her clean image and ability to communicate well may make her an interesting choice for Trump.
Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the constitution to a 60 percent supermajority. Instead, such amendments will continue to require a simple majority, making it likelier that Ohioans will pass an amendment to codify abortion rights in the state constitution this November.
Most of the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections now, and it’s hard to deny in otherwise low-turnout environments, but should we apply these lessons to high-turnout environments -- like the 2024 presidential election -- as well? The crew discusses in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also do a 2024 GOP vice presidential draft, in a world where former President Donald Trump wins the presidential primary.