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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Latest episodes

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Mar 30, 2023 • 50min

New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart

In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year FiveThirtyEight is tracking what that looks like -- what legislation is being proposed and passed and how Republicans and Democrats are going about things differently. In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at new proposals on guns, tax and spending plans and identity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 27, 2023 • 46min

Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)

After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about one of America’s favorite musicians: Is this a good or bad use of polling?Then they take a hard turn back into electoral politics, with the question: Who do Democrats want the GOP nominee to be, and what does that tell us about how they’re thinking about 2024? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 23, 2023 • 53min

Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?

All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldn’t be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and don’t know about Trump’s legal jeopardy and the possible political impact of an indictment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 20, 2023 • 45min

The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back

The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 16, 2023 • 56min

The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census

The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 13, 2023 • 1h 2min

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 9, 2023 • 51min

Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm

Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 6, 2023 • 1h 3min

The Poll That Ended Dilbert

Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger?They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the national political environment. And they ask whether the poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist rant over was actually a meaningful poll. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Mar 2, 2023 • 45min

Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'

American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis,” New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve.In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Feb 27, 2023 • 1h 3min

How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear

To mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book “Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.” James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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