Pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler discuss the good and bad use of polling. They analyze why GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently based on methodology, the lessons from post-debate polling, and whether Nikki Haley utilized polling effectively in her debate performance.
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Quick takeaways
Different polling methodologies can yield varying results, as seen in Vivek Ramaswami's support in the Republican primary.
Post-debate polling provides insights into candidate performance, perception, and potential appeal.
Polling hypothetical match-ups in a Democratic primary reveals candidate popularity and the competitive standing of those aligned with the Obama brand.
Deep dives
The importance of analyzing polling methodologies
It is crucial to examine the different methodologies used in polling, as they can yield varying results. For example, in the Republican primary polls, Vivek Ramaswami's support differed depending on whether the survey was conducted online or via live phone. This highlights the potential impact of reach and mode effects on the results. The analysis of these different methodologies allows for a deeper understanding of the factors that may influence poll outcomes.
Analyzing GOP debate performance and polling
Post-debate polling showed that DeSantis, Ramaswami, and Haley performed well according to Republican primary voters who watched the debate. Additionally, 15% of respondents believed that Nikki Haley performed the best. The polls also indicated an increase in consideration for Haley and improved favorability ratings. This analysis provides valuable insights into the reception and impact of debate performances on voter perceptions, helping to gauge candidate strength and potential appeal.
Examining the use of polling in hypothetical match-ups
The use of polling in hypothetical match-ups against Biden in a Democratic primary can provide valuable information about candidate popularity and brand resonance. While some criticism was raised regarding the inclusion of candidates who have no intention of running or constitutional limitations, the poll still offers insights into public perception and preferences. Notably, it highlights the appeal of candidates aligned with the Obama brand, such as Michelle Obama and Pete Buttigieg, and their competitive standing against Biden.
Republican voters' view on Trump's electability
Republican voters largely believe that Donald Trump is electable and have confidence in his ability to win against Joe Biden. Despite negative opinions of Trump among the general public, Republican voters see him as a strong leader who can effectively challenge Biden in a general election. The party's base views Biden as weak and believe that swing voters will also see him as a failed proposition. The perception of Trump's electability is further bolstered by the belief among Republican voters that he won the 2020 election. This confidence in Trump's electability has not been diminished by arguments about his unfavorability
The use of polling on abortion
Nikki Haley's use of polling to argue against Trump's electability by highlighting his unpopularity is questioned. Polling claiming that Trump is the most disliked politician in America is criticized for being misleading and poorly designed. The misleading question forced respondents to choose between a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions or allowing abortion up until birth, creating a false choice. Additionally, Republicans' past position and credibility on abortion are seen as challenges for effectively using polling to argue against Trump's electability. However, it is acknowledged that Republicans cannot ignore the issue entirely and need to carefully address it in their messaging.
This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of "good or bad use of polling" examples.
They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate polling, whether Nikki Haley used polling well in her debate performance and more.