FiveThirtyEight Politics

The podcast discusses the potential challenges to democratic norms and presidential authority in a second term for Donald Trump. They analyze Trump's jokes about being a dictator and the implications of his rhetoric. They explore Trump's potential abuse of power and the constraints he may face. The role of civil servants and threats to the civil service are also discussed. The podcast explores the potential consequences of a second term for President Trump and critiques a UVA poll on public opinion on democracy.

Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst, and MaryAlice Parks, White House correspondent, unpack the fourth Republican debate. They discuss strategies and performances of candidates, impact of attacking Trump on immigration, influence of personal anecdotes, and the importance of endorsements.

In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states.There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary.They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This podcast explores the integration of AI in the 2024 election, discussing its potential influence on voter behavior and information spread. They also discuss the drama and politics surrounding AI adoption, nightmare scenarios of AI in the election, the potential threat of deep fakes, watermarking AI-generated content, interventions to address AI issues in elections, and concerns about using AI technology.

Discussion on the potential expulsion of Rep. George Santos from the U.S. House, changing public opinion on the Israel-Hamas war, and the gap between positive economic data and Americans' perception of the economy.

Voters in Simi Valley, California discuss their shifting preferences and how they don't neatly fit into one party. Topics include views on Trump's presidency, rising costs, supporting DeSantis, researching candidates for the California primary, raising kids in America while preserving Turkish culture, and concerns for the 2024 election.

The podcast discusses the recent shifts in working-class voters towards the right in both the white and non-white communities. Two authors with opposing political views share insights from their books on the subject. The challenges faced by the Republican Party in adapting to changing demographics are examined, as well as the decline in support for Democrats among working-class voters. Strategies for the Republican Party to sustain and expand support among multi-racial working-class voters are explored. The convergence and divergence of Republican and Democratic parties on economic issues are discussed, as well as the tension between short-term politics and long-term challenges.

Analyzing early polls for the 2024 election, experts discuss Trump's potential advantage, impact of Biden and Trump's policies, significance of swing states and black voter support, likelihood of Trump winning the nomination, unpopularity of Biden and Trump, and the possibility of third-party candidates. They also reflect on poll results on trust in Republicans vs Democrats and views on abortion, emphasizing the importance of understanding the issue landscape.

Discussion on the intense and controversial third Republican primary debate, Trump's unique manipulation of attention, analysis of Haley and DeSantis's debate performance, speculation on dropouts and endorsements, assessing Tim Scott's campaign strategy, and analyzing candidates' stances on abortion.

The podcast explores the results of the 2023 elections, with Democratic victories in Kentucky and the passage of abortion protections in Ohio. They discuss the benefits of polarized parties for voters and the influence of the national environment on election outcomes. The Democrats' shift on abortion and polling accuracy are also examined.