Nikki Haley has a chance of winning the Republican primary, but she faces challenges in expanding her support base among Trump's loyal followers.
Endorsements and financial support are important in presidential primaries, but they are not the sole determining factors for victory.
Issue polling can offer insights into public sentiment, but it has limitations in capturing complex motivations and predicting election outcomes.
Deep dives
Nikki Haley's Chances of Winning the Republican Primary
Nikki Haley's chances of winning the Republican primary are discussed. While Trump is still the front-runner and highly favored, there is a growing narrative that Haley could be a viable alternative to him. The recent endorsement from Americans for Prosperity adds some weight to Haley's campaign. However, she still faces challenges in expanding her support base, particularly among Trump's loyal followers. Her appeal lies in attracting voters who want to move on from Trump but still align with conservative values. To have a real shot at winning, several factors would need to align in Haley's favor, including potential weaknesses or controversies surrounding Trump, sequential primary wins to gain momentum, and the possibility of a contested convention.
The Role of Money and Attention in Presidential Primaries
The impact of money and attention in presidential primaries is discussed. While endorsements and financial support, such as the recent endorsement from Americans for Prosperity, can contribute to a candidate's visibility and campaign resources, they are not the sole determining factors in winning the primary. In Haley's case, the endorsement may not significantly sway Republican voters, as it comes from a group that is perceived to be anti-Trump. Additionally, money alone cannot secure victory in a presidential primary, as other candidates also have substantial financial backing. Ultimately, a candidate's path to victory depends on numerous factors, including the support base they can attract, their performance in key states, and the dynamics of the primary race.
The Challenges and Criticisms of Issue Polling
The discussion shifts to issue polling and its challenges and criticisms. While issue polling can offer insights into voter opinions, it has limitations in capturing the nuanced and complex motivations behind those opinions. Issue polling is most useful when it provides a broad understanding of public sentiment rather than predicting specific election outcomes. The 2022 midterm elections serve as an example, where voters prioritized different issues based on their political affiliation and personal circumstances. However, the framing of issue polling as a crisis based on its inability to predict election results oversimplifies its purpose and disregards its value in understanding public opinion and policy preferences. There is room for improvement in how issue polling is conducted and interpreted, but it is not inherently flawed or crisis-ridden.
Importance of Issue Polling
Issue polling is important in understanding voter preferences and priorities. While only 2% of Americans consider global warming as the most important problem facing the nation, 56% believe it should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. This highlights the need to address climate change despite it not being the top concern for many individuals.
Public Opinion on Santos' Expulsion
A recent survey showed that a majority of voters (76%) believe that George Santos, a member of the House of Representatives, should resign from Congress. This sentiment was shared across party lines, with 82% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans supporting his resignation. Although Santos did not resign, this polling indicates the public's desire for accountability and ethical conduct from elected officials.
In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states.
There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary.
They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us?
