2024 Is The First ‘AI Election.’ What Does That Mean?
Nov 30, 2023
47:20
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This podcast explores the integration of AI in the 2024 election, discussing its potential influence on voter behavior and information spread. They also discuss the drama and politics surrounding AI adoption, nightmare scenarios of AI in the election, the potential threat of deep fakes, watermarking AI-generated content, interventions to address AI issues in elections, and concerns about using AI technology.
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Quick takeaways
AI in politics presents both risks and benefits, including concerns about deep fakes and micro-targeting but also the potential to aid lesser-known candidates and provide voters with synthesized information through chatbots.
Regulating AI in politics requires a multi-pronged approach to address risks, avoid concentration of control, and incentivize responsible AI use, while recognizing trade-offs and the need for voter engagement.
Deep dives
The Role of AI in American Elections
As we approach the 2024 election, the integration of AI in political strategies and campaigns is becoming a reality. However, concerns arise regarding how AI might influence voter behavior and the spread of information. The potential dangers of deep fakes, particularly in the form of fake videos or images depicting major candidates in compromising positions, is a worrisome scenario. While there have been instances of deep fakes in elections, the current evidence suggests that the effects on voters are limited. Additionally, the use of AI in micro-targeting voters and manipulation of online content is a subject of discussion. However, past research indicates that such tactics do not have significant effects on election outcomes. The focus should not solely be on the negative impacts of AI; there are potential benefits such as aiding lesser-known candidates and providing voters with synthesized information through chatbots. While uncertainty surrounds the regulations and practical applications of AI in politics, it is essential to address the risks while acknowledging the potential positives.
Navigating the Unknowns of AI Regulation
Regulating a technology that is still evolving and whose potential consequences are unknown is a challenging task. It is crucial to recognize the trade-offs involved in AI regulation, as certain restrictions may favor incumbents and limit competition. Additionally, the concentration of control over political information by a few tech companies, especially in content moderation decisions, poses risks to democracy. The focus should be on avoiding sensationalism and AI stunts in media coverage and incentivizing responsible AI use in politics. AI may offer benefits such as aiding down-ticket candidates and engaging young voters through chatbots. A multi-pronged approach combining regulation, civil society efforts, and political commitments can help address the risks associated with AI in elections.
The Narrative of AI in Politics
The narrative surrounding AI in politics should be approached with caution. While concerns exist about the manipulation of voters, the use of AI itself does not fundamentally alter the nature of dirty campaigning. AI provides new tools for political actors, but similar tactics have been employed throughout history. Elections have worked despite such practices. It is important for voters not to disempower themselves by succumbing to cynicism and believing that AI has taken over elections. Instead, voter participation remains crucial, and the impact of AI on democracy should be viewed in perspective.
Balancing Concerns and Positives of AI in Elections
As AI continues to be integrated into political strategies, a balance must be struck between addressing concerns and recognizing potential benefits. Concerns over deep fakes, micro-targeting, and manipulation exist, but evidence suggests that the effects on voters are limited. The focus should extend beyond the negative aspects to consider the potential positives, such as leveling the playing field for underfunded candidates and providing voters with synthesized information through chatbots. AI regulations need to be mindful of trade-offs and avoid concentrating control over political discourse. Ultimately, voters should remain engaged and avoid a cynical perspective on AI's impact on elections.
Exactly one year ago today, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring AI-generated images, legislative proposals and a congressional hearing on AI regulation. By all accounts, the 2024 presidential election is going to be our first "AI election." However, often the specifics around AI’s impact remain vague. How exactly could it impact our electoral politics?
In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, the interim dean of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Bueno de Mesquita’s research focuses on game theory, political conflict and electoral accountability, and he recently co-authored the white paper "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research."