Discussion on the potential expulsion of Rep. George Santos from the U.S. House, changing public opinion on the Israel-Hamas war, and the gap between positive economic data and Americans' perception of the economy.
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Quick takeaways
The perception of the economy as fair or poor by Americans may be influenced by factors such as memories of past economic hardships and concerns about income inequality.
Public opinion on the Israel-Hamas war has shifted, with decreasing support for Israel among Democrats and a growing appetite for the United States to take a more moderate role in the conflict, exposing divisions within the Democratic Party.
Deep dives
Americans' Perception of the Economy
According to recent polls, a majority of Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, despite positive economic indicators such as low unemployment, solid GDP growth, and a rising stock market. This perception may be influenced by factors such as memories of high inflation, the belief that the economy is rigged for the wealthy, and a desire for a more moderate approach to economic policies. Additionally, personal experiences, like forgoing major purchases due to higher interest rates, may contribute to this perception.
Shifting Public Opinion on the Israel-Hamas War
Public opinion on the Israel-Hamas war has shifted since the initial attack, with support for Israel generally decreasing among Democrats. However, it's important to note that the increase in support for Palestinians is not significant. Instead, there is a growing appetite for the United States to take a more moderate role in the conflict. The divide in public opinion on this issue has exposed divisions within the Democratic Party, particularly between younger and older Democrats.
Perception Gap: Positive Economic Indicators vs. Public Opinion
Despite positive economic indicators such as low unemployment, solid GDP growth, and decreasing inflation rates, the majority of Americans rate the economy as fair or poor. This perception gap likely stems from factors such as memories of past economic hardships, concerns about income inequality, and a sense that the economy is rigged in favor of the wealthy. It is noteworthy that personal financial situations are often rated positively, indicating a disconnect between individual experiences and perceptions of the overall economy.
Understanding the Discrepancy in Economic Assessment
The discrepancy between positive economic indicators and public perception of the economy can be attributed to various factors. This includes the lag between economic improvements and public sentiment, memories of past economic challenges, concerns about income inequality, and skepticism towards the influence of the wealthy in the economy. Additionally, personal financial situations may not always align with broader economic assessments, further contributing to the disconnect between positive economic indicators and public sentiment.
The U.S. House gets back to work on Tuesday and one of its first orders of business is expected to be a vote on whether to expel Rep. George Santos of New York. A House ethics report concluded earlier this month that he “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit.”
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how likely Santos is to be added to the only five House expulsions in U.S. history. They also look at changing public opinion surrounding the Israel-Hamas war, after more than a month and a half of fighting. Plus, with new economic data in hand, they once again try to tackle the gap between positive developments and Americans' dismal perception of the economy.