Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Experts discuss US nuclear arsenal modernization, challenges of missile proliferation, North Korea's strategic moves, and complexities of nuclear nonproliferation. Dive into topics like cyber risks, Chinese nuclear build up, and the historical rationale behind the nuclear triad. Plus, insights on North Korean missile production and potential collaborations with Russia and China.

Former US military attache to Taiwan, Ivan Kanapathy, discusses the looming threat of Chinese invasion, challenges Taiwan faces in defense reform, the difficulty of invading Taiwan, evolving Taiwanese national identity, and why a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They also explore the world's dependence on Taiwan's semiconductors and the future of US-Taiwan relations.

Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal's chief foreign-affairs correspondent, discusses his book on the Russian invasion and Ukraine's war of independence. Topics include the strategic failure of the Russians, uneven war preparations by Ukraine, the peace talks, the design flaw of last year's counteroffensive, and the path to Ukrainian victory.

Experts Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, and Andrey Liscovich discuss the impact of FPV drones on the Ukraine war, including advantages and disadvantages, challenges in developing munitions, electronic warfare strategies, and the changing nature of warfare. They highlight the need for Western militaries to learn from this conflict and the role of drones in naval warfare and ground operations.

Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Dr. Ben Buchanan, White House Special Advisor on AI, about the risks and benefits of AI, the US government's goals with the President's Executive Order on AI, concerns about evil people misusing AI, requirements for reporting developments in foundational models, maintaining US technological leadership, open source AI models, international AI strategy, using AI in the US government, the mission of the AI Safety Review Board, and US government's concerns about China's use of AI.

Alicia García-Herrero, an economist specializing in China, discusses why China is facing structured deceleration and the deflationary trend it brings. She highlights the real estate bubble, demographics collapse, lack of economic productivity, and the impact of China's economy on the Belt and Road Initiative.

Gilbert Herrera, Director of Research at NSA discusses the limited current applications of quantum computing, the revolutionary progress of AI, challenges in AI technology, and the need to address errors and hallucinations in AI models.

Discussion on ATACMS missiles and their advantages for Ukraine including range capabilities and difficulty of interception. Analysis of availability and potential impact of ATACMS on counter offensive. Benefits of Taurus missile and its potential integration in Ukrainian Su-34 jets. Use and benefits of ATACMS for Taiwan and Ukraine. Exploration of marketing benefits and production rate of TACAMs

Guests: Dmitri Alperovitch (discusses the complicated Starlink-Elon saga) and Patrick Gray (host of Risky Business podcast). The podcast explores the complexities of Elon Musk's involvement in providing Starlink connectivity to Ukraine, including military use of Starlink, payment challenges, and the controversy surrounding service in Crimea. It also examines the potential of Starlink as a backup communication solution for Taiwan and its impact in Australia and Ukraine.

Bryan Vorndran, Assistant Director of FBI's Cyber Division, discusses the importance and successes of FISA Section 702, such as disrupting assassination plots and recovering ransom from the Colonial Pipeline hack. The podcast also covers compliance issues with the program and the FBI's efforts to address them. Other topics include the use of 702 to uncover terrorist plots and rescue kidnapped Americans, the use of batch jobs for IP address search, and the challenges of combating blended threats in cybersecurity.