Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal's chief foreign-affairs correspondent, discusses his book on the Russian invasion and Ukraine's war of independence. Topics include the strategic failure of the Russians, uneven war preparations by Ukraine, the peace talks, the design flaw of last year's counteroffensive, and the path to Ukrainian victory.
Mutual deterrence has played a crucial role in preventing direct targeting of civilian shipping in the Black Sea region during the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Delayed support from the United States, due to political dynamics, has put Ukraine's military capabilities at risk, creating frustration and a sense of Ukrainian lives being on the line.
Deep dives
Yarslav Trafima's Experience and Insights on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
In this podcast episode, Yarslav Trafima, the Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, shares his insights on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trafima discusses his personal connection to the conflict and when he became convinced that a Russian invasion was likely. He highlights the denial and lack of preparedness among Ukrainian society and government, as well as the Ukrainian military's secret defense plans. Trafima also examines the Russian military's strategies and the crucial battle for Kyiv. He further explores the success and failures of the Ukrainian military's defense in different regions, such as Kharkiv and Chernihiv. Trafima sheds light on the peace talks, Russian demands, and the challenges of achieving a peace deal. Finally, he discusses the pressure and difficulties faced by Ukraine, including the need for additional support and the implications of possible upcoming elections.
The Importance of Mutual Deterrence and Ukraine's Black Sea Success
One significant aspect of the Ukraine-Russia conflict discussed in the podcast is the concept of mutual deterrence. Trafima emphasizes the importance of mutual deterrence, highlighting the role it plays in preventing direct targeting of civilian shipping in the Black Sea region. He explains that the threat of Ukrainian retaliation against Russian oil exports and the success of indigenous Ukrainian maritime drones has effectively deterred Russia from targeting civilian shipping. Additionally, Trafima highlights the impact of western insurance companies ensuring the safety of shipping in the region. He also examines the broader context of Ukraine's black sea success, including the significant role of the Black Sea for Russian and Ukrainian exports.
Challenges Faced by Ukraine and the Delayed Support from the US
The podcast delves into the challenges faced by Ukraine and the implications of delayed support from the United States. Trafima discusses Ukraine's urgent need for offensive and defensive weapons to counter the Russian military advantage. He emphasizes that the delayed supplemental bill in Congress, aimed at providing this support, has put Ukraine's military capabilities at risk. The impact of this delay includes a shortage of ammunition for Ukraine and a considerable advantage for Russia. Trafima acknowledges the efforts of some European countries to compensate for the lack of American aid, yet notes that it remains insufficient. He also emphasizes the frustration in Ukraine, as American political dynamics hold the supplemental bill hostage, creating a sense of Ukrainian lives being on the line due to factors unrelated to the conflict itself.
The Long-term Outlook: Multi-year War and Strategic Considerations
The podcast delves into the long-term outlook of the conflict, acknowledging the likelihood of a multi-year war. Trafima highlights the absence of a viable Plan B for Ukraine and the understanding among Ukrainians that resistance is the only option against Russian aggression. He discusses the challenges faced by Ukraine, including the risk of a temporary ceasefire allowing Russia to regroup and strike again in the future. Trafima also evaluates the strategic considerations for Ukraine, including the need to leverage domestic capabilities, given the uncertainty of future large-scale support from Western countries. He emphasizes the importance of enhancing Ukraine's indigenous defense industries and its ability to produce weapons locally. Lastly, Trafima contemplates the potential impact of a prolonged conflict on Ukrainian society and the imperative of preventing Ukraine from imploding under Russian pressure.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, about his new book "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence."
They discussed why the Russians lost any chance of capturing Kyiv in the first day of the war by failing to take Hostomel airport, why Ukrainian war preparations were quite uneven (stronger in the north than in the south), why the peace talks never had a chance, the strategic problem with the design of last year's counteroffensive and what the path to Ukrainian victory could look like.
Please check out Yaroslav's book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/B0CFYPX267/
And Dmitri's upcoming book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzsruxnYwRQ
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