How China Might Invade Taiwan: A World on the Brink Scenario
Apr 30, 2024
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Dmitri Alperovitch discusses his book 'World on the Brink' detailing how China might invade Taiwan, along with topics such as U.S.-China conflict, Taiwan's strategic importance, Cold War similarities, and deterrence strategies.
Understanding Taiwan's geopolitical significance as a crucial outpost against China
Importance of innovative technologies for US dominance in the 21st-century race
Analogies drawn between Cold War II with China and Cold War I with the Soviet Union
Deep dives
Background and Collaboration on the Book
Dimitrile Parrish and co-author Garrett Graf discuss the motivation behind their book 'World on the Brink,' emphasizing its origins in Dimitrile's emotionally impacted response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The book's focus on the impending conflict between the US and China stems from parallels Dimitrile drew between the situations in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific region. The authors aim to warn about the potential conflict with China and outline strategies to deter it, highlighting the urgency and importance of addressing this threat.
Significance of Taiwan in China-US Relations
The discussion delves into the critical importance of Taiwan in the geopolitics between China and the US. Taiwan's strategic significance predates its role as a semiconductor producer, harkening back to General MacArthur's designation of it as the 'unsinkable aircraft carrier.' The geopolitical map portrays Taiwan as a linchpin in the containment strategy against China by providing a critical outpost for US military presence. Understanding Taiwan's historical background and its distinctive political and cultural identity is emphasized in dispelling misconceptions about its belonging to China.
Technological Dominance and Strategic Resources
The book outlines four key technologies crucial for US dominance in the 21st century race against China: AI and autonomy, biotech and synthetic biology, aerospace technologies, and green tech for energy solutions. Highlighting the significance of semiconductors and critical minerals in these technological advancements, the strategies put forth underscore the need for innovation defenses and resilient supply chains to stay ahead of China.
Analysis of Cold War Parallels and Timelines
An intricate examination of the similarities between the current US-China conflict and the Cold War with the Soviet Union is presented. The book predicts a grand strategy towards victory, citing George Kennan's approach in dealing with the Soviet Union as an insightful paradigm. This predictive analysis explicitly defines victory in confronting China's threat within the next decade or two and stresses the importance of proactive measures to counter any potential aggression.
Foreseeing the Scenario of an Invasion on Taiwan
The prologue of the book offers a vivid portrayal of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan set on November 13, 2028. Detailed military strategies and tactics, such as an air assault on Taipei's port and airfield facilities, are outlined. This fictionalized scenario encompasses the PLA's planned operational approach, from amphibious ship assaults to air and naval blockades, emphasizing the critical role of Taipei's infrastructure in the potential conflict. The narrative underscores the intricate planning involved, portraying the high stakes and complex geopolitical considerations surrounding such a military confrontation.
Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook excerpt from the book that lays out in great detail how China is likely to go about its invasion of Taiwan.
In addition, Dmitri and Garrett discuss:
- Why they wrote this book
- What’s a stake in the potential conflict with China over Taiwan
- Dmitri’s battles against Chinese IP theft over the course of his career
- Why Taiwan matters to the United States
- Why America will not achieve chips independence from Taiwan for the foreseeable future
- Why Taiwan never fully belonged to China
- Timeline for potential invasion and why invasion is unlikely to take place in 2027
- Why we are in a Cold War II with China that is remarkably similar to Cold War I with the Soviet Union
- Strategy for victory in Cold War II
- How to deter an invasion of Taiwan
If you found this podcast interesting, please consider ordering the book from your favorite book stores or online at https://WorldOnTheBrink.com and writing a review!
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