Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Gilbert Herrera, Director of Research at NSA discusses the limited current applications of quantum computing, the revolutionary progress of AI, challenges in AI technology, and the need to address errors and hallucinations in AI models.

Discussion on ATACMS missiles and their advantages for Ukraine including range capabilities and difficulty of interception. Analysis of availability and potential impact of ATACMS on counter offensive. Benefits of Taurus missile and its potential integration in Ukrainian Su-34 jets. Use and benefits of ATACMS for Taiwan and Ukraine. Exploration of marketing benefits and production rate of TACAMs

Guests: Dmitri Alperovitch (discusses the complicated Starlink-Elon saga) and Patrick Gray (host of Risky Business podcast). The podcast explores the complexities of Elon Musk's involvement in providing Starlink connectivity to Ukraine, including military use of Starlink, payment challenges, and the controversy surrounding service in Crimea. It also examines the potential of Starlink as a backup communication solution for Taiwan and its impact in Australia and Ukraine.

Bryan Vorndran, Assistant Director of FBI's Cyber Division, discusses the importance and successes of FISA Section 702, such as disrupting assassination plots and recovering ransom from the Colonial Pipeline hack. The podcast also covers compliance issues with the program and the FBI's efforts to address them. Other topics include the use of 702 to uncover terrorist plots and rescue kidnapped Americans, the use of batch jobs for IP address search, and the challenges of combating blended threats in cybersecurity.

Explore the implications of the alleged death of Prigozhin, leader of Wagner, on the group's structure, command, and operations in Africa. Discover the uniqueness of Wagner as a private military company and the predictions for its future. Learn about the founding members and evolution of Wagner, including their combat experiences and transformation from a support-focused PMC to an elite infantry force. Hear discussions on rumors surrounding Prigozhin's time in prison and attacks on his family. Speculate on the implications of Prigozhin's death for Russia's future in Africa and the role of Wagner in establishing relationships. Understand the choices available to Russian soldiers and the significance of quality personnel. Analysis of the commander's history, loyalty, and potential role in the military police is also discussed.

Dmitri Alperovitch, Patrick Gray, and Illia Vitiuk discuss Russia's cyber attacks on Ukraine, including turning off the power grid in 2015 and hacking satellite communications. They explore Ukraine's successful defense strategies, collaboration with Western companies, intelligence collection on battlefield systems, and tactics used by Russian intelligence operatives.

Geoeconomist Douglas Rediker discusses the enduring dominance of the US dollar, the lack of viable alternatives, and the limitations of the Chinese renminbi. The podcast also explores seizing Russia's Central Bank Reserves for Ukrainian reconstruction and the economic repercussions for China if it invades Taiwan.

This podcast explores the shift in European security architecture and discusses Germany's investment in military reform. It analyzes Europe's dependence on the US military and potential integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO. The challenges of complex weapon systems and the importance of integration are also discussed, along with the lessons learned from the Ukrainians in terms of innovation and interoperability.

On the train ride back to Poland from Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (President of Ukraine Defense Fund, a charity that provides non-lethal aid to the Ukrainian military) about how various types of drones are used for artillery correction, target identification and strike missions in Ukraine. They discuss why Chinese drones such as DJI Mavic and Matrice are superior to Western commercial alternatives, why Starlink is irreplaceable, why friendly fire is responsible for over half of commercial drone losses, and how electronic warfare is affecting drone navigation and communication and what countermeasures are being employed. Also, why developing jailbreaks for the latest DJI drone models is a critical need for the Ukrainian military. Music: "I am Ukraine" by Nastia Kamenskikh (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofspgP0cKbE)

Guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about his recent trip to Kyiv and what he learned from his meetings with senior military and intelligence leadership there. Dmitri also interviews Mike Kofman and Rob Lee during their train ride to Kyiv about the current state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and their thinking on the fallout from the Wagner mutiny Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saEpkcVi1d4