What the Death of Prigozhin Means for Wagner, Russia and Ukraine
Aug 24, 2023
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Explore the implications of the alleged death of Prigozhin, leader of Wagner, on the group's structure, command, and operations in Africa. Discover the uniqueness of Wagner as a private military company and the predictions for its future. Learn about the founding members and evolution of Wagner, including their combat experiences and transformation from a support-focused PMC to an elite infantry force. Hear discussions on rumors surrounding Prigozhin's time in prison and attacks on his family. Speculate on the implications of Prigozhin's death for Russia's future in Africa and the role of Wagner in establishing relationships. Understand the choices available to Russian soldiers and the significance of quality personnel. Analysis of the commander's history, loyalty, and potential role in the military police is also discussed.
The deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin may result in significant changes and potential diminishment of Wagner Group's effectiveness and command structure.
Wagner Group's success in Ukraine was attributed to its merit-based rewards system, initiative-driven decision-making, and support from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The absence of Prigozhin's organizational abilities may lead to challenges for Wagner Group in terms of finances, logistics, and maintaining relationships with host countries.
Deep dives
Implications of Wagner's Leadership Deaths
The deaths of Evgeny Pragosian and Dimitri Utkin, leaders of the Wagner Group, may have significant implications for the organization. If they are indeed dead, the group is expected to undergo significant changes. The unique command structure, discipline, and incentives that contributed to Wagner's success are likely to be lost without Pragosian and Utkin. Even if the field commanders with combat experience remain, the group is unlikely to maintain the same level of trust, recruitment access, and scale of operations without its founding leaders. This could impact Wagner's operations in Africa and Belarus. The organization may diminish and resemble other Russian private military companies, albeit with reduced effectiveness and command structure.
Wagner's Effectiveness and Challenges
Wagner proved to be a highly capable fighting force during the war in Ukraine, particularly in comparison to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). The group excelled in assault operations, with highly experienced field commanders leading its tactical success. Unlike the Russian military, Wagner rewarded merit and initiative-driven decision-making, which contributed to its effectiveness. However, Wagner's dependence on MoD support for logistics and other resources was crucial to its achievements. Additionally, the organizational expertise, particularly in recruitment, training, and logistics, demonstrated by the group's leader, Evgeny Pragosian, was a significant factor in its success. Without Pragosian and his organizational prowess, it remains uncertain if Wagner can maintain its capabilities.
The Future of Wagner and the Challenges Ahead
The deaths of Pragosian and Utkin leave Wagner in a precarious position. The organization's fighters are now faced with uncertainty regarding their future. Questions arise as to who will pay their salaries and provide logistical support. The Russian military may see this as an opportunity to absorb Wagner fighters into their own structure by offering better pay and resources. The absence of Pragosian's organizational abilities may limit Wagner's ability to operate independently. This could lead to significant challenges for the organization, especially in maintaining relationships with host countries and fulfilling their security obligations. The loss of Pragosian's leadership may have far-reaching consequences for Wagner's future operations and effectiveness.
Implications of Prigozhin's Reputation
Prigozhin, despite having no real military background, gained significant respect among his peers due to his compelling story and skill in building the brand for Wagner. His ability to draw a clear line between himself and the organization he claimed to have built garnered admiration. Prigozhin also criticized other PMCs and their lack of professionalism, solidifying his reputation further. Despite rumors of his past in prison, including allegations of being a 'pitough,' these rumors did not significantly impact his standing. His connections, credentials, and the support of respected individuals helped counter any negative claims.
Unraveling Wagner's Future in Africa
The future of Wagner's operations in Africa remains uncertain. With the potential downfall of Prigozhin and Utkin, questions arise about the continuity and capabilities of the PMC. The Russian government may seek to forge new relationships directly with African countries to lessen dependence on Wagner. However, creating a new organization with similar cultural experience and combat proficiency could be challenging. It is crucial to note that the Russian military is still heavily concentrated on the conflict in Ukraine, which could affect the resources available for other deployments in Africa. The outcome of this transition will be an area of interest to observe in the coming months.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Russian military analyst Rob Lee and Wagner Group expert Jack Margolin about the implications of reports of Prigozhin's fiery death in a plane crash in Russia. Where does Wagner go from here? What happens to Russian ambitions in Africa? Does this event help restore Surovikin, Russia's most competent commander of this war, back to command one day? And what impact this might have on the future of the war
Music: Richard Wagner's Funeral March
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