Former US military attache to Taiwan, Ivan Kanapathy, discusses the looming threat of Chinese invasion, challenges Taiwan faces in defense reform, the difficulty of invading Taiwan, evolving Taiwanese national identity, and why a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They also explore the world's dependence on Taiwan's semiconductors and the future of US-Taiwan relations.
The recent election in Taiwan and the divided government raise questions about the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations and defense strategy.
The Taiwanese military-civilian relationship poses challenges in aligning strategies and spending priorities for defense.
Taiwan's natural defenses, including its topography and terrain, make invasion difficult and highly unfavorable for China.
Deep dives
Implications of Taiwan's Divided Government for US-Taiwan Relations
The recent election in Taiwan resulted in a divided government, with the DPP winning the presidency but losing the legislature to their competitors in the KMT and TPP. This raises questions about the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations and their defense strategy. While Taiwan's political history is still evolving, the last time the government and legislature were divided, it did not turn out well for U.S.-Taiwan relations. However, all three parties campaigned on increasing deterrence and defense spending, which provides an opportunity for the United States to hold them accountable and foster cooperation on external issues.
Challenges in Taiwan's Military-Civilian Relationship
The Taiwanese military-civilian relationship poses challenges due to the differing perspectives and interests within the government. The DPP, focused on deterring China, lacks deep expertise in national security and military matters, while the defense ministry is dominated by KMT generals who prioritize big military programs. This disconnect raises concerns about spending priorities and aligning strategies with the defense needs of Taiwan's unique topography. While Taiwan's military has demonstrated proficiency in tactical and technical aspects, building a broader cadre of expertise and external checks on the military will take time.
The Strategic Significance of Taiwan's Natural Defenses
Taiwan's natural defenses play a crucial role in deterring Chinese aggression. The island's mountainous and forested terrain, combined with steep cliffs and shallow beaches, make invasion difficult and highly unfavorable for the aggressor. Furthermore, the presence of tunnels and rivers adds to the challenges. Visiting the Taiwanese terrain highlights the nightmare scenario for any invading force. With sufficient efforts, Taiwan can transform itself into a virtually impregnable fortress that would require a significant force to overcome.
The Growing Concern and Preparedness in Taiwan for Potential Threats
The people of Taiwan have been increasingly concerned about potential threats, especially after witnessing events in Hong Kong and other recent geopolitical developments. This growing awareness has led to increased interest among Taiwanese civilians in being prepared and trained to respond to threats. Organizations and initiatives, such as Enoch Wu's nonprofit training civilians in basic response skills, have gained traction, demonstrating a determination within the population to be prepared and take proactive measures in the face of potential challenges.
The Complex Realities of a Potential Chinese Blockade or Gray-Zone Tactics
The effectiveness of a Chinese blockade or gray-zone tactics against Taiwan is highly unlikely. While some propose the idea of a blockade or redirection of shipping, such tactics would face numerous challenges and potential countermeasures. Taiwan's leverage in semiconductor manufacturing, crucial for global supply chains, presents opportunities for them to respond strategically. Additionally, any aggressive actions by China would risk international backlash and considerably disrupt not only Taiwan but also China's own economic interests. The resilience and agency of Taiwan make it an unyielding target for such tactics.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Ivan Kanapathy, a former US military attache to Taiwan, about the looming threat of Chinese invasion and why a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They discuss the implications of the recent Taiwan elections on the island's military readiness and the future of US-Taiwan relations, the challenges Taiwan faces in reforming its defense force and strategy, why an invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most difficult military operations ever conducted in the history of warfare, the evolving Taiwanese national identity and why the Taiwanese have little interest in unification with mainland China. Plus, why the world's dependence on Taiwan's semiconductors is unlikely to go away in the foreseeable future.
If you are interested in this topic, please preorder Dmitri's upcoming book that dives in great detail into these and many related issues: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJFkCK_Ex2U
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