How the US Planned to Respond to Russia Using a Nuke in Ukraine
Apr 8, 2024
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Cybersecurity expert Dmitri Alperovitch and NYT writer Bill Hennigan discuss US fears of Russia using nuke in Ukraine, proposed limits on presidential nuclear strike power, and risks of Russia placing nuke in space. They delve into responses to potential Russian nuclear threats, diplomatic strategies, and global reactions to the crisis, emphasizing the need for legislative safeguards against unchecked nuclear weapon use.
US preparedness for potential Russian nuclear threat in Ukraine discussed intensively.
Tactical nuclear weapons used to signal intent and coerce rather than secure military advantage.
Deep dives
The Russian Threat and US Response
The podcast delves into the heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, discussing the dramatic events surrounding the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia. The US national security establishment was on high alert due to intelligence suggesting Russia's risk of using nuclear weapons against Ukrainian forces. Amid fears of a nuclear retaliation, the US government took swift action, prepositioning supplies and establishing communication with Russian officials to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. The episode emphasizes the grave risks of nuclear escalation, marking a critical moment akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Implications
The discussion explores the concept of tactical nuclear weapons as a potential tool of coercion and terror rather than for significant military impact. The analysis highlights the distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, underscoring the psychological impact and signaling intent rather than achieving battlefield victory. The narrative points to the use of tactical nuclear weapons as a means to escalate tensions and underscore a resolve to win conflicts through fear and intimidation.
Global Nuclear Dynamic and Policy Challenges
The podcast addresses the evolving landscape of global nuclear threats, emphasizing the increasing risks posed by nuclear proliferation and geopolitical tensions. The breakdown of arms control agreements, coupled with the modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals by countries like China and Pakistan, contributes to a more perilous global nuclear scenario. The episode underscores the urgent need for fresh thinking and policy initiatives to address the growing complexities of nuclear deterrence and arms control.
Presidential Authority and Nuclear Decision-Making
The episode deliberates on the outdated nature of the US presidential authority in launching nuclear weapons, highlighting the concerns around unilateral decision-making power. The discussion advocates for revisiting the existing protocols to involve additional checks and balances in nuclear decision-making, moving towards a more collective and deliberative process. By exploring the implications of restricting presidential nuclear authority, the episode prompts a critical examination of the current mechanisms governing the use of nuclear weapons.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating proliferation.
They discussed the fears that the US intelligence community had in the fall of 2022 that the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine was estimated to be at 50/50 and how the US planned to respond to that outcome. Bill and Dmitri also debated the proposal to limit the power of the President to launch a first nuclear strike and discussed the destabilizing implication of the recent news that Russia may be seeking to put a nuclear weapon into space.
Please check out Dmitri's book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" which comes out on April 30th. https://worldonthebrink.com
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