RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Oct 24, 2025 • 32min
RenMac Off-Script: Bubble Bandwagons
The hosts dive into a surprisingly low CPI print that hints at potential Fed rate cuts. They explore how weak rents and job slowdowns are driving disinflation. The conversation shifts to Trump's aggressive trade strategies and their muted effect on inflation. Jeff highlights signs of a gold bubble, warning of ETF inflows as potential warning signals. Additionally, they discuss the impact of a government shutdown on data and what to expect from upcoming trade negotiations during Trump’s Asia trip.
Oct 17, 2025 • 41min
RenMac Off-Script: Shooting The Hostages
RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-too-tight Fed. Pavs updates the prolonged shutdown, Trump’s trade maneuvers ahead of a Xi meeting, and Washington’s focus on growth over regulation amid geopolitical tension and market froth.
Oct 16, 2025 • 42min
RenMac Legends Podcast with Michelle Meyer
Neil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a front seat to the US consumer. In this episode of the RenMac Legends Podcast, we talk about consumer trends and what's driving the recent strength, the benefits of large private sector data sets given the data fog due to the government shutdown, and a get into a bit of a back and forth on housing as well.Michelle was a former colleague of mine at Bank of America Merrill Lynch under Ethan Harris and then ran the US Econ Team at B of A before heading to MasterCard. Here’s our conversation:
Oct 10, 2025 • 30min
RenMac Off-Script: The Golden Age
RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities buoyant. The team discusses the deepening government shutdown and its missing “pain point,” the global drivers behind gold’s parabolic surge, andWashington’s growing industrial policy push into rare earths. They close by flagging warning signs in semiconductor sentiment and how shifting cyclical trends could define year-end market moves.
Oct 3, 2025 • 40min
RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Shenanigans
RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape. The team flags complacency in recession odds,highlights sentiment risks in semis, and explains why healthcare’s pain may be setting up a long-term bottom — all while keeping an eye on discretionary trends, gold, and the Fed’s next move.
18 snips
Sep 26, 2025 • 58min
RenMac Off-Script: Productivity Push or Problem
In this insightful discussion, Sam Rowe, an award-winning financial journalist and Substack author, dives into the complexities of Fed dynamics under Trump appointees and the looming threat of a government shutdown. He explores the paradox of cooling labor markets potentially boosting profit margins, while dissecting recent sectoral tariffs and their political implications. Rowe also engages in the challenging conversation of measuring productivity in the age of AI and shares insights on why his newsletter remains bullish on US stocks.
20 snips
Sep 19, 2025 • 37min
RenMac Off-Script: Lack of Conviction
The discussion kicks off with the Fed's recent risk-management cut and the internal divisions affecting future interest rate decisions. Insights into the current state of housing and construction reveal potential implications for job growth. The team analyzes the rally in small caps and cyclicals, questioning if momentum can sustain. Additionally, they explore the impact of tariff politics and regulatory changes, adding complexity to the market outlook. It's a deep dive into how these factors intertwine, shaping both economic and trading landscapes.
Sep 12, 2025 • 36min
RenMac Off-Script: Market Highs with Fed at Crossroads
The discussion dives into the collision of Fed politics with market expectations ahead of the FOMC decision. Elevated shutdown risks are addressed, despite hopes of easing partisan tensions. The evolution of tariffs with China and other nations is explored, revealing unexpected twists. There's a debate on whether current market resilience is genuine or a facade, especially in light of weak job data. Plus, the team shares insights on investment opportunities in defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities amidst fluctuating economic signals.
Sep 9, 2025 • 35sec
RenMac Mailbag Question Introduce
They say some people have a face for radio.You? You've got a face for Off-Script.Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mailbag.Fame optional. Hats guaranteed.https://start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag-video
Sep 5, 2025 • 38min
RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs
This discussion dives into the surprising job market trends, questioning the true growth of employment as consumer sentiment shifts dramatically. There's an urgent look at the escalating odds of a government shutdown and the political ramifications tied to it. The alignment of gold's rise with falling yields is also explored. Bitcoin's strong performance amid market volatility contrasts sharply with the broader economic signals, influencing various sectors from home building to retail. Humor and audience engagement add a unique spin to the analysis.
