RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Aug 22, 2025 • 34min
We’ll Take Your Money, Not Your Two Cents
RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum holds up
Aug 15, 2025 • 35min
RenMac Off-Script: Money Illusion
The discussion dives into the nuances of recent economic data and its impact on retail sales, with a focus on prices. Insights on the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and their relevance to housing markets are shared. Small caps are contrasted with strong trends in Asia, raising optimism for future investments. Government intervention in the semiconductor sector, particularly with Intel, sheds light on broader industrial strategies. The geopolitical landscape, especially related to energy costs from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, is also explored.
Aug 8, 2025 • 35min
RenMac Off-Script: Trump/Powell Play Chicken
RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game theory is guiding Trump’s Fed chess match and whether or not Waller is already acting as shadow Fed chair
10 snips
Aug 1, 2025 • 37min
RenMac Off-Script: Summer Soft-Patch
This discussion tackles the troubling trends in the job market and its implications on the economy. The speakers critique the Federal Reserve's credibility and explore the risk of a rate cut cycle. They humorously navigate British and Canadian slang, bringing cultural insights to the table. Additionally, they analyze healthcare as a surprising investment opportunity and delve into the impact of tariffs on domestic producers. The lively exchange also anticipates upcoming economic data releases, making it a perfect blend of wit and wisdom.
Jul 25, 2025 • 42min
RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed
Dive into the humorous yet serious interplay between Trump and the Fed, shedding light on their political dynamics. Explore how tariffs complicate corporate margins and consumer impacts amidst rising inflation. Discover the nuances of the U.S. market's performance through equal weight indices, challenging bearish narratives. AI's disruptive role in IT consulting also takes center stage, revealing the existential challenges for traditional firms. Finally, navigate the stagnant labor market's impacts on job seekers and the complexities of global economic shifts.
Jul 18, 2025 • 36min
RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Surprise
The hosts humorously dive into a recent Coldplay concert incident involving a CEO's affair. They analyze the Federal Reserve leadership race and potential government shutdowns, discussing their impacts on the economy and cryptocurrency. The conversation shifts to U.S.-China chip diplomacy, highlighting its geopolitical stakes for AI. They also tackle the housing market's decline and its effect on rentals, along with the struggles of multifamily REITs due to high interest rates. Finally, they assess a strong earnings season amidst economic uncertainties.
7 snips
Jul 11, 2025 • 35min
RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited
The conversation kicks off with lighthearted holiday anecdotes before diving into serious economic insights. Tariff announcements bring complexity to international trade, impacting market dynamics and commodity prices. Discussions on the looming potential of a government shutdown reveal political pressures within Congress. The debate between momentum and beta offers traders fresh strategies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining traction, with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin as regulatory frameworks for digital assets evolve.
Jul 4, 2025 • 27min
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions
RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.
Jun 27, 2025 • 36min
RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition
RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.
Jun 20, 2025 • 36min
RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO?
RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.
