RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Oct 3, 2025 • 40min
RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Shenanigans
RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape. The team flags complacency in recession odds,highlights sentiment risks in semis, and explains why healthcare’s pain may be setting up a long-term bottom — all while keeping an eye on discretionary trends, gold, and the Fed’s next move.
18 snips
Sep 26, 2025 • 58min
RenMac Off-Script: Productivity Push or Problem
In this insightful discussion, Sam Rowe, an award-winning financial journalist and Substack author, dives into the complexities of Fed dynamics under Trump appointees and the looming threat of a government shutdown. He explores the paradox of cooling labor markets potentially boosting profit margins, while dissecting recent sectoral tariffs and their political implications. Rowe also engages in the challenging conversation of measuring productivity in the age of AI and shares insights on why his newsletter remains bullish on US stocks.
20 snips
Sep 19, 2025 • 37min
RenMac Off-Script: Lack of Conviction
The discussion kicks off with the Fed's recent risk-management cut and the internal divisions affecting future interest rate decisions. Insights into the current state of housing and construction reveal potential implications for job growth. The team analyzes the rally in small caps and cyclicals, questioning if momentum can sustain. Additionally, they explore the impact of tariff politics and regulatory changes, adding complexity to the market outlook. It's a deep dive into how these factors intertwine, shaping both economic and trading landscapes.
Sep 12, 2025 • 36min
RenMac Off-Script: Market Highs with Fed at Crossroads
The discussion dives into the collision of Fed politics with market expectations ahead of the FOMC decision. Elevated shutdown risks are addressed, despite hopes of easing partisan tensions. The evolution of tariffs with China and other nations is explored, revealing unexpected twists. There's a debate on whether current market resilience is genuine or a facade, especially in light of weak job data. Plus, the team shares insights on investment opportunities in defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities amidst fluctuating economic signals.
Sep 9, 2025 • 36sec
RenMac Mailbag Question Introduce
They say some people have a face for radio.You? You've got a face for Off-Script.Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mailbag.Fame optional. Hats guaranteed.https://start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag-video
Sep 5, 2025 • 38min
RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs
This discussion dives into the surprising job market trends, questioning the true growth of employment as consumer sentiment shifts dramatically. There's an urgent look at the escalating odds of a government shutdown and the political ramifications tied to it. The alignment of gold's rise with falling yields is also explored. Bitcoin's strong performance amid market volatility contrasts sharply with the broader economic signals, influencing various sectors from home building to retail. Humor and audience engagement add a unique spin to the analysis.
Aug 29, 2025 • 48min
RenMac Off-Script: China Breakout & Fed Shakeout
This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor market, small caps leading equities higher, China’s breakout, and client psychology in a too-good-to-be-true market. Plus: Josh previews the Future Proof Festival, and the crew debates SPAC mania, data center jobs, and what’s on the horizon for September.
Aug 22, 2025 • 34min
RenMac Off-Script: We’ll Take Your Money, Not Your Two Cents
RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum holds up
Aug 15, 2025 • 35min
RenMac Off-Script: Money Illusion
The discussion dives into the nuances of recent economic data and its impact on retail sales, with a focus on prices. Insights on the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and their relevance to housing markets are shared. Small caps are contrasted with strong trends in Asia, raising optimism for future investments. Government intervention in the semiconductor sector, particularly with Intel, sheds light on broader industrial strategies. The geopolitical landscape, especially related to energy costs from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, is also explored.
Aug 8, 2025 • 35min
RenMac Off-Script: Trump/Powell Play Chicken
RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game theory is guiding Trump’s Fed chess match and whether or not Waller is already acting as shadow Fed chair
