RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.

RenMac discusses:Latest developments with Trump appointmentsThe horserace for Treasury secretaryOngoing weakness in labor demandLow bulls in Treasuries are bullishImpact of political appointments on specific sectors

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.

Delve into the shifting polls hinting at Trump's rising popularity amid a low-key news cycle. Analyze the unique strategies candidates are using to energize their bases as the election looms. Explore how inflation and employment data are influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions. Unpack the potential market shifts post-election, particularly regarding tariffs and small-cap stocks. Plus, uncover the role of international tensions and former Presidents in rallying rural voters for upcoming electoral battles.