RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump
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Jan 9, 2026 The podcast dives into the January jobs report, revealing complexities in rate-cut forecasts and rising unemployment risks. Discussions on market cycles highlight how falling yields can still signal support for equities. The panel debates political uncertainties around tariffs and housing policy, and how these factors might unintentionally shore up markets. Insight into the geopolitical landscape, particularly related to oil and Venezuela, raises questions about market reactions. Emerging trends in healthcare and biotech showcase contrarian investment opportunities.
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Weak Job Breadth Masks Rising Unemployment Risk
- The January jobs report shows weak distribution of job gains, with cyclical industries underperforming despite low unemployment.
- Neil Dutta warns unemployment risks are rising beneath stable headlines and that downside likely exceeds upside over coming months.
Cycle Clock Points To Trend-Driven Equity Upside
- The Market Cycle Clock shows mediocre near-term equity returns but a historical trajectory toward a stronger zone as yields fall.
- Jeff DeGraff says stagnant data isn't bad and trends still favor equities if yields compress further.
Trade The Fed-Timing Gap
- Play the timing gap between consensus Fed-cut expectations and actual Fed action to find opportunity.
- If the market misprices the timing of cuts, that divergence creates tradable setups ahead of the end result.