RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands
Jan 30, 2026
They unpack the market fallout from a hawkish Fed chair frontrunner and the political and confirmation risks around that pick. They flag parabolic moves in gold, silver and crypto and why sentiment extremes make sharp reversals likely. They cover momentum tech and sector rotation risks, rising trade and shutdown dangers, plus China-Taiwan tensions and near-term market seasonality.
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Warsh Nomination Raises Credibility Questions
- Kevin Warsh appears hawkish and unlikely to persuade colleagues toward dovish policy despite being the leading Fed chair candidate.
- Neil Dutta warns Warsh's nomination raises suspicion given Trump's desire for rate cuts and Warsh's consistent hawkish track record.
Parabolic Trades Have Hair Triggers
- Parabolic moves in assets like gold, silver, and crypto are highly fragile and driven by psychology rather than fundamentals.
- Steve Pavlik cautions these moves have "hair triggers" and can suffer sharp V-shaped reversals with little liquidity to absorb them.
Silver Sentiment Is Historically Extreme
- Sentiment in silver reached extremes comparable to 1998, making current bullish consensus historically unusual.
- Steve Pavlik highlights consensus bullishness as a danger signal independent of price level.