RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair
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Nov 28, 2025 The discussion kicks off with insights on consumer weakness impacting discretionary stocks ahead of the holidays. Oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin suggest potential market shifts. A debate ensues over the implications of 'hawkish cuts' from the Fed as data falters. Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Taiwan, are explored. The hosts speculate on potential Fed Chair candidates, emphasizing the importance of political optics and institutional norms. Finally, concerns over tariffs and their effect on margins in 2026 add to the economic outlook.
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Holiday Seasonality Hurts Discretionary In December
- Holiday seasonality surprisingly weighs on consumer discretionary relative returns in December.
- Discretionary typically underperforms in December but outperforms in Q1, so buy-the-dip timing matters.
Consumer Data Points To A Choppy Holiday
- Recent consumer indicators (confidence, unemployment, disposable income) point to a choppy holiday spending season.
- Utility bills and stagnant pump prices blunt the boost consumers usually get from holidays.
A Hawkish Cut Risks Falling Behind The Curve
- A single Fed cut in December without a clear easing path risks the Fed falling behind the curve.
- Responding to lagged data with meeting-by-meeting cuts can leave policy perpetually reactive.