RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly
20 snips
Dec 12, 2025 
Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, dives into the Federal Reserve's recent decisions and the complex communications surrounding them. He discusses how the January jobs report will influence potential rate cuts and the role of hawkish dissents in shaping policy. Nick also weighs in on upcoming Fed Chair succession and its implications for credibility. The conversation touches on labor market dynamics, emerging market strength in metals, and the limited Fed focus on cryptocurrencies. It's a rich exploration of monetary policy intricacies!
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January Jobs Are The Decider
- Nick Timiraos says the January unemployment print will likely determine whether the Fed moves to cut in January.
- Markets are waiting for that data and will signal if a cut is "live."
Dissents Signal Caution, Not Chaos
- Nick notes hawkish dissents reflected concerns about services inflation and potential upside risks.
- He suspects some officials held dissent back to avoid making the institution look fractured.
Political Pressure Has Real Effects
- Nick says political pressure on the Fed is real and seeps into decision-making even if officials try to ignore it.
- He argues visible dissents help show that replacing the chair won't guarantee easier cuts.
