RenMac

RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

Dec 19, 2025
This week, the hosts dive into the cooling inflation and rising global yields, suggesting a shift in macro dynamics. Neil highlights the implications of increasing unemployment alongside falling inflation, while Jeff notes how historically, this contraction benefits equity returns. Tensions in China and the U.S. over Taiwan and Panama add a layer of geopolitical complexity. The discussion also touches on potential Fed leadership changes and implications for currency volatility amid divergent central banks.
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ANECDOTE

Midnight Security Scare At Home

  • Steve Pavlik recounts waking to an alarm and clearing his house with a gun after his four-year-old woke his two-year-old.
  • He jokes about repeating the exercise if his son claims to have seen Santa Claus.
INSIGHT

Rising Unemployment, Falling Inflation Suggest Cuts

  • Unemployment is rising and inflation is falling, which argues for Fed rate cuts according to Neil Dutta.
  • He warns the Fed is rationalizing data anomalies instead of responding promptly to the trend.
INSIGHT

Low Inflation Is A Tailwind For Equities

  • Declines in core inflation historically predict stronger six-month S&P returns when in low percentiles, Jeff DeGraff argues.
  • The bottom 20th percentile shows the biggest equity tailwind as inflation contracts further.
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