The Trivium China Podcast

Hosts Andrew Polk and Trey McArver break down the recent phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that revived US-China trade talks. They highlight the critical misunderstandings that almost derailed discussions and explore China's rare earth export controls, revealing their effects on global manufacturing. The conversation also touches on the EU's precarious position in these negotiations and the hope for a lasting trade agreement. Overall, there's cautious optimism as the trade dialogue seems to be improving for now.

Kendra Schaefer, Trivium China's head of tech policy research, and Ether Yin, head of policy research focusing on China's net zero transition, delve into the recent U.S. export controls on chip technology and their ramifications for China. They discuss the implications of the Trump administration's restrictions on Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools and potential responses from China. The conversation touches on the challenges for Chinese firms in the semiconductor market, and the strategic maneuvers both countries may take amid escalating trade tensions.

Cory Combs, head of critical mineral and supply chain research at Trivium China, dives deep into the intricacies of rare earth export controls and U.S.-China trade dynamics. He discusses China’s recent export license approvals and the unlikely scenario of easing dual-use export restrictions. The conversation touches on the repercussions for U.S. manufacturers and highlights China’s retaliatory tactics against companies compliant with U.S. regulations. Combs emphasizes the fragile state of the 90-day de-escalation and what might disrupt this tentative peace.

Ether Yin, a policy expert based in Shanghai, joins co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver to delve into the recent trade war de-escalation. They explore China's strategic move to issue licenses for critical mineral exports to the U.S., signaling a temporary thaw. The discussion also highlights China's growing ties with Latin America and the implications of these developments on global economic relations. Tune in for insights on trade strategies and the evolving dynamics between superpowers!

It’s been a long time coming, but Beijing is finally ramping up economic support to counter the fallout from tariffs.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday.The gents get into the nitty gritty of China’s financial system – with forays into PBoC relending facilities, provident fund mortgages, and insurance companies’ capital requirements – to explain just what officials hope to achieve.They then round things off with a chat about the latest developments in the US-China trade war, and touch on China’s plan to double down on exports in the years ahead.Enjoy!

In this week’s podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver examine Beijing’s latest thinking on trade tensions with the US – as both sides settle in for a sustained confrontation. The two discuss:Whether Beijing has Trump’s numberThe shifting narrative on China’s ability to sustain hostilitiesConflicting reports as to whether China and the US are actively negotiatingChina’s patient approach to stimulus – with the recent Politburo meeting opting not to provide additional domestic economic supportThe Politburo study session on AI – and how China is trying to position itself globallyAs always, there’s lots to chew on!

Cory Combs, Head of supply chain research at Trivium China and expert on critical minerals, joins for an insightful conversation about the evolving U.S.-China trade tensions. He discusses the recent pause in tariff escalations and its potential longevity, emphasizing that a stalemate is better than more drastic measures. The talk then shifts to China's strategic export controls on rare earth elements, revealing their significance for global supply chains and national security. Combs shares the implications for companies navigating these turbulent waters.

The discussion dives into the escalating tariff tensions between the US and China, exploring the potential for a spiraling conflict. Insights are shared on how each country may be misreading the other, alongside possible off-ramps for de-escalation. They examine the likely impacts on the global economy and debate both the optimistic and pessimistic futures of trade relations. Additionally, concerns are raised about the flood of Chinese goods into Europe and how China might support its economy amid these challenges. Buckle up for a whirlwind of insights!

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk links up with Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver. The two:Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on FridayDiscuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK HutchisonPreview China’s likely response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffsThen Andrew speaks with Trivium’s Head of China Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to get into Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying car technology.This one covers a lot of ground – and you won’t want to miss any of it.

Ether Yin, co-founder of Trivium China, and Joe Mazur, head of geopolitical research at Trivium China, delve into the latest insights from the China Development Forum. They analyze the contrasting moods of domestic and foreign businesses in China. The discussion highlights Beijing's evolving economic coercion tactics, recent updates to the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, and the role of U.S.-China relations in shaping business dynamics. They also explore how foreign companies are adapting to new regulatory challenges, shedding light on the intricate balance of opportunity and risk.