The Trivium China Podcast

Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research at Trivium, dives into China's economic landscape, addressing the implications of its new growth model. He explores the recent drop in October's economic output and its impact on investment and exports. The discussion reveals strategies China may employ to sustain export growth amid rising trade tensions and the potential for a 'China Shock 2.0' focused on advanced manufacturing. McMahon also highlights China's pivot towards free trade agreements and its approach to embed itself in global supply chains.

Cory Combs, head of critical mineral research at Trivium China, sheds light on the complex landscape of rare earth export controls. He discusses discrepancies between US and Chinese statements about recent agreements, and how political messaging adds to the confusion. Cory explores the realistic timelines for the US to reduce reliance on China for rare earths, emphasizing the challenges in establishing new supply chains. He highlights the difficulties posed by regulatory factors and the need for government support in a capital-intensive industry.

Kendra Schaefer, Head of tech policy research at Trivium, specializes in China's tech policy and semiconductor strategy, while Dinny McMahon leads markets research there, focusing on economics. They dive into the recent trade ceasefire, analyzing China's advantages and the truces' fragility. Kendra explains the ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the urgency for tech self-sufficiency. Dinny outlines economic priorities, emphasizing industrial upgrading and innovative sectors. Together, they reveal China's strategy in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomic Analyst at Trivium China, shares insights on China’s fragile consumer confidence despite a GDP growth of 4.8%. He discusses the impacts of uneven recovery and declining housing markets on consumption. Sean Stein, President of the USCBC, navigates the complexities of U.S.-China business relationships amid volatility. He highlights how the fentanyl issue can foster trust and why firms still value the China market for its speed and innovation, even amidst regulatory challenges.

It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."

Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible.The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy research) and Cory Combs (head of critical mineral and supply chain research) to explain China’s AI+ approach.They delve into:The overarching AI+ framework – and how it differs from previous AI policies in ChinaThe six key fields that China is targeting for AI diffusionWhat to expect as the AI+ policy ecosystem takes shape in the months aheadChina’s AI+Energy plan – what it seeks to achieve and why it is so fundamental to the wider AI+ visionHow officials will approach more foundational aspects of AI+ – including foundational models, compute, data supply, developer ecosystems, and talentThe gang then wrap up the discussion by zeroing in on why the AI race is different from previous global competitions to produce technological breakthroughs.The key point: Achieving AI breakthroughs will look more like past pushes into electrification and the internet – as opposed to the nuclear weapon or space races.You’ll definitely want to stick around till the end for this one – enjoy!

For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure.But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgradingAggressive export growthTechnological innovation What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works.For the past 18 months, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, have been working on a research project focused on understanding what type of economy Beijing is trying to build over the next decade, and how those efforts will be shaped by the challenges of high debt levels, a souring demographic profile, and the shifting forces of deglobalization. CSIS published that report – China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035 – at the beginning of September.In this podcast, the gents draw upon that research to explain what Beijing wants from its new growth model, how it's supposed to work, and how we might be able to tell if it's working.

China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting.That’s not supposed to happen:Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic aspirations.They then get into what Beijing is doing about it, and whether those efforts are likely to meaningfully boost badly needed tax receipts.