The Trivium China Podcast

Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research at Trivium China, dives deep into the notable outcomes of Beijing's Central Economic Work Conference. He decodes the thin official readout to reveal that 2026 is expected to mirror 2025, emphasizing a shift from supply to demand focus. They assess the potential for increased government spending, the continuation of consumer goods trade-in programs, and the need for targeted service subsidies. Dinny also highlights growing concerns around local government debt and the push for nursing care as crucial drivers in shaping China's economic landscape.

Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research at Trivium China, shares insights on China's recent rebranding of its overcapacity issues as 'involution.' He explains how this shift impacts Beijing's policies and why they dismiss overcapacity in a global free market. The discussion highlights the cutthroat competition among firms and the government's agenda to bolster profitability and innovation. McMahon also reviews recent stabilization measures and the implications for US-China trade dynamics, providing a balanced view of challenges and potential progress.

In a deep dive, Joe Peissel, Head of China macroeconomic research at Trivium, sheds light on China's alarming drop in fixed asset investment and what it means for the economy heading into 2026. He reveals that a 23% plunge in real estate investment is significantly dragging down overall figures. The discussion touches on local governments diverting infrastructure funds, reshaping the landscape of economic growth. Joe also navigates the complexities of China's rule by law and its implications for governance and investment strategies.

Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research at Trivium, dives into China's economic landscape, addressing the implications of its new growth model. He explores the recent drop in October's economic output and its impact on investment and exports. The discussion reveals strategies China may employ to sustain export growth amid rising trade tensions and the potential for a 'China Shock 2.0' focused on advanced manufacturing. McMahon also highlights China's pivot towards free trade agreements and its approach to embed itself in global supply chains.

Cory Combs, head of critical mineral research at Trivium China, sheds light on the complex landscape of rare earth export controls. He discusses discrepancies between US and Chinese statements about recent agreements, and how political messaging adds to the confusion. Cory explores the realistic timelines for the US to reduce reliance on China for rare earths, emphasizing the challenges in establishing new supply chains. He highlights the difficulties posed by regulatory factors and the need for government support in a capital-intensive industry.

Kendra Schaefer, Head of tech policy research at Trivium, specializes in China's tech policy and semiconductor strategy, while Dinny McMahon leads markets research there, focusing on economics. They dive into the recent trade ceasefire, analyzing China's advantages and the truces' fragility. Kendra explains the ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the urgency for tech self-sufficiency. Dinny outlines economic priorities, emphasizing industrial upgrading and innovative sectors. Together, they reveal China's strategy in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomic Analyst at Trivium China, shares insights on China’s fragile consumer confidence despite a GDP growth of 4.8%. He discusses the impacts of uneven recovery and declining housing markets on consumption. Sean Stein, President of the USCBC, navigates the complexities of U.S.-China business relationships amid volatility. He highlights how the fentanyl issue can foster trust and why firms still value the China market for its speed and innovation, even amidst regulatory challenges.

It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."