The Trivium China Podcast

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."

Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible.The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy research) and Cory Combs (head of critical mineral and supply chain research) to explain China’s AI+ approach.They delve into:The overarching AI+ framework – and how it differs from previous AI policies in ChinaThe six key fields that China is targeting for AI diffusionWhat to expect as the AI+ policy ecosystem takes shape in the months aheadChina’s AI+Energy plan – what it seeks to achieve and why it is so fundamental to the wider AI+ visionHow officials will approach more foundational aspects of AI+ – including foundational models, compute, data supply, developer ecosystems, and talentThe gang then wrap up the discussion by zeroing in on why the AI race is different from previous global competitions to produce technological breakthroughs.The key point: Achieving AI breakthroughs will look more like past pushes into electrification and the internet – as opposed to the nuclear weapon or space races.You’ll definitely want to stick around till the end for this one – enjoy!

For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure.But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgradingAggressive export growthTechnological innovation What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works.For the past 18 months, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, have been working on a research project focused on understanding what type of economy Beijing is trying to build over the next decade, and how those efforts will be shaped by the challenges of high debt levels, a souring demographic profile, and the shifting forces of deglobalization. CSIS published that report – China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035 – at the beginning of September.In this podcast, the gents draw upon that research to explain what Beijing wants from its new growth model, how it's supposed to work, and how we might be able to tell if it's working.

China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting.That’s not supposed to happen:Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic aspirations.They then get into what Beijing is doing about it, and whether those efforts are likely to meaningfully boost badly needed tax receipts.

Recent geopolitical shifts in Asia are front and center as Xi Jinping showcases China's influence through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. The camaraderie between Xi, Putin, and Modi raises questions about a potential New World Order. China's military parade juxtaposes themes of peace with displays of power, particularly concerning Taiwan. The podcast dives into the dynamics of Xi's bilateral meetings with global leaders, emphasizing the complexities of international relations and the implications for U.S. foreign policy.

China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February.Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property sector has been worsening, and local governments still aren’t paying their suppliers.But Beijing is hoping that there's a real foundation to this rally – a foundation that it's responsible for building, quietly and gradually, over the past 18 months.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the recent market rally, as well as the changing role Beijing envisions for the stock market in the economy. They also explore Beijing's:Concept of a "slow bull market"And efforts to rebuild public trust in the market, to make it a worthwhile place to invest

China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads.They break down:What China is doing to bolster its leverageWhere the US side's response is succeeding and failingWhat a stable end-state might be for global manufacturing supply chains – balancing the upsides and downsides of Chinese supplies

The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.They discuss:Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investmentWhy consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward servicesAnd why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents get into China's:Latest export miraclePersistently weak household consumptionEfforts to deal with overcapacityThen they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.