The Trivium China Podcast

China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting.That’s not supposed to happen:Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic aspirations.They then get into what Beijing is doing about it, and whether those efforts are likely to meaningfully boost badly needed tax receipts.

Recent geopolitical shifts in Asia are front and center as Xi Jinping showcases China's influence through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. The camaraderie between Xi, Putin, and Modi raises questions about a potential New World Order. China's military parade juxtaposes themes of peace with displays of power, particularly concerning Taiwan. The podcast dives into the dynamics of Xi's bilateral meetings with global leaders, emphasizing the complexities of international relations and the implications for U.S. foreign policy.

China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February.Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property sector has been worsening, and local governments still aren’t paying their suppliers.But Beijing is hoping that there's a real foundation to this rally – a foundation that it's responsible for building, quietly and gradually, over the past 18 months.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the recent market rally, as well as the changing role Beijing envisions for the stock market in the economy. They also explore Beijing's:Concept of a "slow bull market"And efforts to rebuild public trust in the market, to make it a worthwhile place to invest

China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads.They break down:What China is doing to bolster its leverageWhere the US side's response is succeeding and failingWhat a stable end-state might be for global manufacturing supply chains – balancing the upsides and downsides of Chinese supplies

The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.They discuss:Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investmentWhy consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward servicesAnd why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents get into China's:Latest export miraclePersistently weak household consumptionEfforts to deal with overcapacityThen they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.

China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.The two discuss:The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out in the recently released US AI planThe conflicting messages on whether US export controls will loosen or tighten going forward – and Beijing’s perception of the issueHow the US plans to get allied countries on board with its AI planThe competing visions around open-source AI developmentChina’s pitch to the world for inclusive AI development, in its new AI planAnd which horse the rest of the world will likely back, given the competing US and Chinese approachesIt’s good to be back!After taking an unscheduled break for a few weeks, we are glad to finally be back in your podcast feed!Our apologies to listeners for the short hiatus, but this discussion was worth the wait. Enjoy!

Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.The two discuss:The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issuesOther signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approachThe ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would faceParallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled outThe gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. It’s another fun one – so enjoy!

At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.

Ether Yin, Head of policy research at Trivium China, specializes in navigating Chinese government policy, while Joe Mazur leads geopolitical research focusing on U.S.-China relations. They discuss the resurgence of consumer confidence in Beijing, fueled by increased tourism and spending on luxury items. The duo also unpacks the latest challenges in U.S.-China trade talks and the implications of China's geopolitical stance for international relations, particularly in light of G7 dynamics and EU concerns. Tune in for insights that blend economic trends with hot geopolitical takes!