The Trivium China Podcast Ep 45 - China’s perspective on the trade ceasefire + 15th Five-Year Plan breakdown
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Oct 31, 2025 Kendra Schaefer, Head of tech policy research at Trivium, specializes in China's tech policy and semiconductor strategy, while Dinny McMahon leads markets research there, focusing on economics. They dive into the recent trade ceasefire, analyzing China's advantages and the truces' fragility. Kendra explains the ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the urgency for tech self-sufficiency. Dinny outlines economic priorities, emphasizing industrial upgrading and innovative sectors. Together, they reveal China's strategy in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
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One-Year Truce Returns Status Quo
- The Xi–Trump October 30 meeting produced a one-year trade truce that largely rolls back to the pre-Liberation Day status quo.
- Details remain vague and working-level teams must fill in many implementation gaps.
Truce Pauses Escalation For A Year
- The agreement effectively restores pre-April tariff positions while pausing several recent measures for a year.
- The 12-month timeframe reduces quarterly uncertainty but creates a fragile, time-bound détente.
Rare-Earths Gave China New Leverage
- China gained leverage by showing rare-earth and critical-mineral measures can force U.S. concessions.
- Beijing can buy time to shore up tech capabilities while keeping earlier controls available as a threat.