Ep 42 - Back on the escalatory spiral

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.

On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.

• The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.

Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:

• The key details of China’s export control expansion
• What’s new, and what’s not in these controls
• Beijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiations
• How the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are huge
• Whether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdiction
• What all this means for ongoing US-China talks

The gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.

• For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.