The Trivium China Podcast Ep 46 - What China really agreed to on rare earths + assessing US capability to end reliance on China
Nov 8, 2025
Cory Combs, head of critical mineral research at Trivium China, sheds light on the complex landscape of rare earth export controls. He discusses discrepancies between US and Chinese statements about recent agreements, and how political messaging adds to the confusion. Cory explores the realistic timelines for the US to reduce reliance on China for rare earths, emphasizing the challenges in establishing new supply chains. He highlights the difficulties posed by regulatory factors and the need for government support in a capital-intensive industry.
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Episode notes
Pause Agreed, Details Diverge
- Both sides agreed China will pause October 9 export controls for one year, but details differ between U.S. and China.
- The suspension buys time but leaves uncertainty for businesses about immediate flows.
Official Readout Contained Factual Errors
- The White House readout initially misstated timing, claiming rollbacks going back to 2022, which was wrong.
- Such factual errors undermine clarity and increase confusion for firms planning procurement.
General Licenses Don’t Equal Removal
- General licenses streamline exports but do not remove the underlying controls or license requirements.
- Businesses should expect lower barriers but persistent compliance, delays, and uncertainty.
