The Trivium China Podcast Ep 44 - Xi’s make or break moment + USCBC’s Sean Stein on US-China volatility
Oct 24, 2025
Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomic Analyst at Trivium China, shares insights on China’s fragile consumer confidence despite a GDP growth of 4.8%. He discusses the impacts of uneven recovery and declining housing markets on consumption. Sean Stein, President of the USCBC, navigates the complexities of U.S.-China business relationships amid volatility. He highlights how the fentanyl issue can foster trust and why firms still value the China market for its speed and innovation, even amidst regulatory challenges.
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Exports Diversify As Deflation Looms
- Exports are diversifying away from the U.S., with fast growth to Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa.
- Persistent deflation and falling nominal GDP could eventually curb manufacturing profits and investment.
Property Collapse Is Deep And Long
- Property is the primary drag: new starts and financing are at multi-year lows and prices keep falling.
- Recovery may take years and will likely be uneven across tiers and regions.
Plenum Frames A Make‑Or‑Break Transition
- The 4th Plenum signals a pivot to industry-led growth: industrial upgrading and tech self-reliance top priorities.
- Xi frames the 15th Five-Year Plan as a make-or-break transition to a new development pattern.