The Trivium China Podcast Ep 39 - China's new economic growth model
For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure.
- But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.
The key parts of that new model are well known:
- Industrial upgrading
- Aggressive export growth
- Technological innovation
What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works.
For the past 18 months, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, have been working on a research project focused on understanding what type of economy Beijing is trying to build over the next decade, and how those efforts will be shaped by the challenges of high debt levels, a souring demographic profile, and the shifting forces of deglobalization.
CSIS published that report – China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035 – at the beginning of September.
In this podcast, the gents draw upon that research to explain what Beijing wants from its new growth model, how it's supposed to work, and how we might be able to tell if it's working.