The podcast discusses the run-up in long-term bond yields and mortgage rates, as well as the outlook for the consumer. They explore the factors influencing the term premium and analyze the yield curve's correlation with recessions. They also discuss the record high median net worth of US households, consumer credit and utilization rates, resumption of student loan payments, and the correlation between owner's equivalent rent and the Phillies' World Series wins.

Inflation was front and center in this week’s podcast. Mark and Marisa (yes, she’s back and winning the stats game again) hosted a wonderful cast of colleagues to talk over the September CPI report, the European inflation experience, which is similar to that here in the U.S., and given recent grim events in the Middle East, energy prices. The bottom line is inflation continues to head in the right direction, but not in a straight line. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Dante joins Cris and Mark to digest the September jobs report. The outsized job gain during the month was surprising, but after Dante’s masterful dissection of the data, the group agrees there is a lot to like in the report. After the stats game, they discussion turns to the recent surge in long-term interest rates and how big a threat it poses to the economy.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The fast approaching federal government shutdown is top of mind on this week’s podcast. Mark and Cris consider how the shutdown may play out and the economic consequences. Two other colleagues, Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick, then join the conversation to assess the all important Chinese and Japanese economies. Are the economic fortunes of these two massive economies flip-flopping?For China and Japan: Facing History, a book outlining the strained historical relationship between these two countries, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Rob Fauber, President and CEO of Moody's Corporation, talks about exponential risk and the challenges of using AI. The team discusses economic threats like the UAW strike and rising oil prices. They also cover Moody's evolution, the financial obligations ratio, weather events, and the game-changing nature of AI.

Jonathan Smoke of COX Automotive and Mike Brisson, a vehicle industry expert, discuss the potential consequences of the UAW strike for the auto industry, including supply chain disruptions and closure of operations. They also analyze the impact of the strike on automakers, inflation, and small business pessimism. The discussion also touches on business confidence and the vehicle industry, strikes' effects on vehicle prices, and statistics on inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Lastly, they address concerns about rising fuel prices and its potential effects on the economy.

Given the strong counter narratives regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy – from bright optimism that AI will significantly lift productivity growth and wealth to dark pessimism that it will lead to a dystopic increase in unemployment and cybercrime – we asked Martin Fleming to sort it out. And the former chief economist of IBM and current author and Chief Revenue Scientist at Varicent does just that. And Mark does a bit of advertising along the way.For more about Martin Fleming, click hereFor more on Martin Fleming's book, Breakthrough: A Growth Revolution, click hereTo participate in the weekly Survey of Business Confidence, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The August jobs report couldn’t have been much better.  Dante and Cris called it a good report, while Mark and Marisa thought it was a VERY good report.  Either way, the report has soft landing written all over it.  In standing with the good cheer over the jobs numbers, the group recounted their favorite music. Some surprises there.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. 

The economy is performing about as well as could be expected. Growth is resilient, inflation is moderating, and unemployment is low and stable. It appears increasingly likely the economy will avoid a recession. But having said this, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes are weighing heavily on the financial system and economy. To avoid a recession, nothing else can go wrong. In this podcast, Mark, Cris and team consider what could go wrong. For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Despite the light week of economic data, there was lots going in in the economy to discuss for the Inside Economics team, including the runup in 10-year Treasury yields and fixed mortgage rates. Noted investment banker Chris Whalen then joins the conversation to talk about the banking system, its’ under significant pressure, the independent mortgage banks, a shakeout is underway, and the Fed and other regulators, he’s not a fan.For more on Chris Whalen, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.