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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Surveys, Sentiment and Stamps
Jul 26, 2024
John Leer, Chief Economist at Morning Consult, dives into recent economic data that showcases surprising optimism. He highlights the divergence between consumer sentiment surveys and actual spending behaviors. The conversation touches on how political events are shaping expectations for the upcoming Presidential election and Senate races. Leer also unpacks inflation trends and the complexities of consumer perceptions influenced by social media, all while addressing the ongoing financial struggles consumers face amid rising interest rates.
01:11:19
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Quick takeaways
- Consumer sentiment is significantly influenced by political affiliation, creating a disconnect between perceived economic conditions and actual consumer behavior.
- Despite positive economic indicators, many consumers express anxiety due to stagnant wages not keeping pace with inflation, especially among the uninvested population.
Deep dives
Impact of Consumer Behavior on Economic Outlook
Consumer spending continues to drive the economy, contributing significantly to overall growth. Despite good economic indicators such as a GDP growth rate of 2.8% for the second quarter, there remains a disconnect between economic performance and consumer sentiment. Many consumers feel anxious, not simply because of rising prices, but because their wages do not match inflation. This sentiment is particularly strong among groups who lack investments or home ownership, indicating a widening gap in economic well-being.
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