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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Bonus Episode: Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Biden vs. Trump
Jul 3, 2024
The podcast discusses the economic policies of Biden vs. Trump, analyzing potential impacts on tax code, government spending, trade, immigration, and regulatory policies. They explore how presidents can influence the economy through executive actions, drive policies through Congress, and fulfill campaign promises. The chapter also dives into the economic consequences of their campaign promises, including implications on GDP, inflation, deficits, debt, and labor market.
01:06:25
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Quick takeaways
- Economic policies under Biden prioritize social welfare programs and income support.
- Trump's policies may lead to a mild recession due to tariffs and immigration actions.
Deep dives
Baseline Scenario: Status Quo and Stability
Under the baseline scenario, the economy remains stable with GDP growth at trend rates of around 2%. Unemployment is expected to rise slightly and then stabilize. Inflation returns to the Fed's target range. The scenario includes an extension of the Trump tax cuts for those earning below $400K, no major changes in corporate tax rates or tariffs. Deficits remain high but stable, and interest rates settle around 3%.
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