Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Matt and Marisa join Mark, who called in from an undisclosed location, to discuss this week’s CPI report and FOMC meeting on interest rates. They all agree that the CPI numbers were unambiguously positive and that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates this fall. They play the statistics game, made more difficult by the dearth of economic releases so far this week, and take a few listener questions related to inflation/deflation, OER, and the Fed. For a deeper dive on inflation and how it's measured, check out the bonus episode--a replay of a webinar hosted by Mark, Cris and Marisa on inflation and the Fed. Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In a rare Saturday morning taping of the podcast, Dante and Matt join Mark (where’s Cris and Marisa?) to disentangle the considerable crosscurrents in the May jobs report.  Surging immigration is complicating interpretation of the numbers. Next week’s all-important report on consumer price inflation was also the fodder of discussion, as was Mark’s Washington Post op-ed arguing the Fed should cut rates. Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics, Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Marisa, and Cris are joined by their colleague Matt Colyar as they delve into the resilience of the U.S. economy. Matt kicks off the conversation with a rundown of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and its implications for monetary policy. Following a brief, engaging Stats Game, the team explores the reasons behind the U.S. economy's rapid and robust recovery compared to the rest of the world. The discussion concludes with answers to audience questions, focusing on the implications of quantitative easing/tightening and the predictive power of the yield curve. Guests: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Economist - Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. For more on Jonthan Smoke Click here Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stock prices, house values, and even gold and crypto prices have never been higher.  The team discuss the reasons why, whether it is a bubble, where prices are headed and what it all means for consumers and the broader economy.  They also play the game and take listener questions.  Keep them coming dear listener.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn . Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jonathan Smoke from Cox Automotive and Mike Brisson of Moody’s join the crew for a discussion of inflation and autos. The team dissects this week’s CPI report, which while not great, at least wasn’t worse than expected. Mark argues that the Fed should be looking through the inflation data that’s mixed up with the problematic measures of housing inflation and start lowering rates immediately. The team is mostly on board with this view although Mike convincingly argues that it may be better for the Fed to be “credibly wrong” than incredibly right.  Guests: Jonathan Smoke – Chief Economist, Cox Automotive, Michael Brisson – Director, Moody’s AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. For more on Jonthan Smoke Click here Related Research: The article referenced in today’s episode Lags and measurement issues with OER is available on Economic View: Real Time. The Economic View-Real Time information service is the single web-based source that covers the global economy and financial markets around the clock. The service provides real-time analysis of key economic and financial market developments along with analysis of more than 250 economic releases. Economic View enables users to easily access data, analysis of economic events, trends and risks. Read Full Analysis With A Free 14-Day Trial.    Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Chris Lafakis along with Trevor Houser from the Energy & Climate practice at Rhodium Group for a discussion on how the Inflation Reduction Act promotes the U.S.'s transition to green energy. Podcast host Mark Zandi kicks things off with a quick overview of recent economic developments. The conversation then shifts to a discussion of the IRA’s incentives and tax provisions. Following a brief statistics game, the group explores the potential impact of the upcoming election on the green energy transition.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to discuss the April jobs report. It was something of a surprise, but a happy one, at least for Dante and Mark.  The job market remains strong, but is cooling, opening the window just a bit for the Fed to begin cutting rates. But Cris and Marisa weren’t so sure, worried that the report may signal the start of a more serious slowdown.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Economists Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz discuss domestic migration trends, Philly's rise as a migration hotspot, threats to Fed independence, and immigration's impact on population growth and economic forecast.

Deputy Chief Economist at Cushman Wakefield, Rebecca Rockey, joins the Inside Economics crew to talk about the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy in general. After unpacking the week’s economic events and a quick primer on outrigger canoe paddling, Rebecca walks the IE team through the different segments of CRE and how they’re faring. Mark goes through a “what’s bugging me about CRE” list but Marisa can only see the bright side. Finally, Rebecca and Cris discuss their views on the possibility of a CRE doom loop.  For more on Rebecca Rockey: Click HereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The disappointing March report on consumer price inflation is the fodder for this week’s Inside Economics podcast. The team considers just how big of a disappointment it was, and conclude it turns on second and third significant digits. Yes, that’s what it has come to when assessing just when Fed officials will feel sufficiently confident that inflation is headed back to their target and begin to cut rates. Of course, there are threats to the inflation outlook, most immediate being higher oil prices, which the group takes up. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.