Economists Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz discuss domestic migration trends, Philly's rise as a migration hotspot, threats to Fed independence, and immigration's impact on population growth and economic forecast.
Shift in domestic migration patterns towards urban living for lifestyle reasons rather than work-centric locations.
South Carolina experiencing a surge in migration, attracting a diverse mix of residents from retirees to young professionals.
Increased immigration numbers contribute to workforce growth and economic performance, emphasizing the need for rational immigration reform.
Deep dives
Domestic Migration Trends
Domestic migration patterns have shown a decline in movement, especially from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and Mountain West before and during the pandemic. However, recent data indicates a slowdown in movement to these regions, with the Southeast still attracting residents steadily. Large urban centers have experienced a reduction in net migration as remote work dynamics shift, but the appeal of city living is drawing back younger adults seeking amenities and social lifestyles.
Retiree Migration to South Carolina
South Carolina, particularly areas like Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head, has seen a surge in migration, largely driven by retirees seeking warmer climates and favorable living conditions. While other regions like Greenville have attracted both retirees and young workers, South Carolina's appeal appears to lean more towards attracting seniors. The overall trend in South Carolina reflects a diverse mix of residents from retirees to young professionals.
Migration Effects on Urban Cores
The impact of migration on urban cores has led to a transformation where large cities are focusing more on residential living rather than workspaces. Despite lower office occupancy rates, younger adults are choosing city living for lifestyle reasons, leading to a reimagining of city dynamics. Remote work has reshuffled traditional office environments, making cities more residential hubs for entertainment, tourism, and social activities, rather than solely work-centric locations.
Rent Growth Trends From Zillow Data
Rent growth trends based on Zillow data show a decrease in year-over-year rent growth rates, with the latest figures revealing a 3.6% increase, down from 5.8% a year prior. The data highlights a shift towards rent acceleration in some markets, suggesting a potential uptick in rents. However, compared to previous years, such as 2022 with 16% growth, the current 3.6% signifies a significant decline.
Immigration Impact on Demographics and Economic Growth
The podcast delves into the impact of immigration on demographics and the economy, focusing on recent estimates that reveal higher immigration numbers than previously believed by the Census Bureau. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts significant immigration contribution to workforce growth and economic performance, citing immigration as a vital factor supporting the economy's expansion. The discussion underscores the importance of rational immigration reform for enhancing long-term economic potential and addressing fiscal challenges.
The Inside Economics team is down a regular with Cris on the road, but two Moody’s Analytics colleagues, Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz, try to fill the void. Mark and Marisa recap a busy week by talking about GDP, inflation, and even Fed independence. The discussion of domestic migration features a healthy dose of Philadelphia homer-ism, and the team talks about the implications of the recent surge in immigration, along with plans for new population estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.
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